BTC weekly candle closed below the 10 SMA??

2019년 7월 29일

We currently broke the 10 SMA on weekly and closed below. For those who want confirmation for an actual break of the 10 SMA, you'll need to wait for the next weekly candle to open below before taking a short. Because price can close below, but open above the following week. For those who feel itchy for a trade, shorting under the 10 SMA weekly after the retest will be your proper trade. Stop-loss above the 10 SMA. There's a couple things to keep in mind, there's a lot of support within the 9k to 8.5k region. Taking a short here would profit you between a 500 to 1,000 pt. move. BUT because this is a macro-bull market, you can have a massive dip before it instantly get bought back up almost instantaneously. You'll need to add some sort of trailing take profit.

What does breaking the 10 SMA weekly means? It means price wants to revert back down to the 21 EMA weekly, which currently sits around the mid-8,000 region. You have a couple ways to play this trade, take a short, and hedge long around mid-8000's. Or, do nothing, and wait for BTC to reveal it's big trendy move as oppose to trying to short the macro-bull market.

How do you know this is a bullish consolidation or a blow-off top?
Time. Observe. Wait.

Blow-off top doesn't consolidate for long period of time without an impulsive move down. Blow-off tops usually reveal itself within the month prior to the local top being put in. Because we've been sitting and trading within these ranges for longer period of time, this is more of a bullish consolidation than it is a blow-off top. None of it is guaranteed, but with time and observing price action, you'll be able to figure out if BTC is in-fact ready for another rally upwards or down.

How am I managing my trades?
I took a short from 10,500 and let that position go. I am currently doing nothing and just waiting for BTC to reveal its hands to me before my next big trade. I am currently looking for a position for a long term HODL as I see there's a big opportunity revealing itself before us, which is the 21 EMA weekly.