Up or down? What the three triangles say about BTCUSD

업데이트됨

In the chart of BTCUSD, we can see three overlaid triangles of different time ranges. This overall picture matches perfect with the otherwise undecided situation.

A triangle is a trend continuation pattern and often easily to interpret. An outbreak of a triangle is usually a perfect starting point for a trade. However, right now, it is not even easy to decide, which trend a triangle stands for and how to weight the significance of the three triangles.

The three triangles.
The big violet triangle is not yet fully completed and it will develop approximately until mid-February. I expect an outbreak at the downside. First BTCUSD will move up to the upper borderline and then move down to the lower borderline where the outbreak will probably occur.

노트

The outbreak of the blue triangle just happened today. The outbreak occurred on the upper side of the triangle. Does that mean that BTCUSD will start into an upwards movement? Probably not. The outbreak happened so close to the Pivot point and so close to the apex of the triangle that I interpret the pattern either as continuation of the sideward trend or a very limited and weak upwards move.

노트

There is a green triangle. This formation is not yet complete. Right now, BTCUSD is testing the upper side of this green triangle. Is this a false outbreak? We don't know yet.

If it is a real outbreak, the formation will not get finished and it is a bullish signal. It will probably drive BTCUSD to the upper borderline of the violet triangle.

If it is a flase outbreak, the green triangle will be completed and an outbreak on the lower side at point 5 will occur. This would be a bearish signal.

The weight of the three triangles.
There are three triangles. One of these triangles will probably have a bearish outcome, one of them delivered a sideway signal and the third one will probably make a bullish or a bearish prediction. The indecisive attitude of market participants cannot be shown even more clearly.

노트

There was a breakout on the upper line of the green triangle. However, there is no upmove, but the sideways movement continues.