숏

A 2020 Special: Battle of the Head + Shoulders + LTTL

업데이트됨

Almost none of Bitcoins chart right now is good news.
There are 5 key reasons as to why I believe Bitcoin is soon to capitulate.
----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - ---
1. Possible medium regular head and shoulders pattern.
2. Giant inverted head and shoulders pattern with tilted neckline, bull bias.
3. Possible gigantic bearish ascending wedge with an apex only months after halving.
4. Approaching THE 2 most important Long Term Trend Lines in BTC history, bear bias.
5. Medium strength rejection of crucial 5 month RSI trendline after many overbought rejections.
----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - ---

For the past 2 weeks Bitcoin was ranging in a bull flag channel.
A few days ago the support of this channel was broken on above average volume.

This bull flag came on the heels of 5 very high percentage gains, almost all of which denied in daily overbought RSI.

Once Bitcoin finally reached overbought in the RSI, the 3nd attempted reentry after profit taking was rejected.
The final 3 rejections in RSI caused strong bearish divergence warning of an incoming change in trend.
For those who do not know how to spot divergences, they are very useful in Bitcoin especially when combined with other strategies.
See here for a divergence cheat sheet: i.pinimg.com/736x/e4/3e/6e/e43e6e5e12eed31d22367d9ada9139c3.jpg

Bitcoin hit a very major 1.618 Fibonacci Extension and was very swiftly rejected.
The 2.618 Extension of this same Fib measurement predicted the 2019 high of $13,880.

----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - ---

1. Medium term regular head and shoulders pattern.
"On the technical analysis chart, the Head and shoulders formation occurs when a market trend is in the process of reversal either from a bullish or bearish trend; a characteristic pattern takes shape and is recognized as reversal formation."
-en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_and_shoulders_(chart_pattern)
To trade a head and shoulders pattern, see here: babypips.com/learn/forex/head-and-shoulders

Currently, we are approximately $450 away from a textbook head and shoulders neckline.
The neckline IF textbook would reside somewhere between $8,250 and $8,400.
Interestingly, a roughly estimated right shoulder would find resistance at the top of the prior bull channel we just fell out of.
Should the pattern activate, the target for it would be conservatively around $2,000.
The pattern itself has not yet confirmed, which means as of now that this is only a possibility.

----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - ---

2. Giant longer term inverted head and shoulders pattern with tilted neckline, bull bias.
The inverted head and shoulders pattern is a seller reversal pattern. It indicates that sellers are losing momentum.
The neckline of this inverted head and shoulders is tilted in an ascending manner. At the moment I am unable to find documentation
on the validity of this pattern with an ascending or descending neckline. In this case, the neckline is in an ascending manner.
From experience, I've noticed that when an inverted head and shoulders pattern is ascending in Bitcoin, it has a higher success rate.
Let's be honest though. This is a massive fakeout lying in wait. xd

----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - ---

코멘트

3. Possible gigantic bearish ascending wedge with an apex only months after halving.
An ascending wedge is a very bearish formation. It is basically a buyer exhaustion pattern. Since late September, there is a major
trend line that has held the upper boundary on Bitcoin movements. That trend line began in May of 2019. Combine that upper trend line
with the long term 5 year trend line from 2015, and you have a bearish ascending wedge that legitimately nobody is talking about.
Maybe they can't see it. Or, maybe, they don't want you to know about it. Because this is Bitcoin, chances are very high that this
bearish ascending wedge could morph into a bullish ascending triangle. It would be a bearish pattern turned into a bullish one.
The problem is, the bearish ascending wedge has been forming since late September of last year. The bullish ascending triangle that
MAY form will have only began right before the end of 2019. In trading, bigger patterns that take more time are often the winners.
Just be aware of this wedge as it will likely cause a very rapid change in price once it nears the apex.
As if the halving won't cause a major event anyway. SELL THE NEWS?!

----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - ---

코멘트

4. Approaching THE 2 most important trend lines in BTC history, bear bias.
This is arguably the most important part of my entire analysis. Since the drop in late 2018 to 3.1k, Bitcoin has occasionally flirted with 2 very,
very long term trend lines on the global charts. One trend line is support, and the higher trend line is the resistance OF the support.
If that makes any sense. The point is, the lower boundary trend line IF respected will push Bitcoins rock bottom price to the very
top of our 2019 high at by the end of the year. Meaning, by 2021 the respected trend lines will force Bitcoin to either make a
substantial move upwards and attack the ATH, or if broken, will begin a catastrophic 5-20 year bear market. The first REAL bear market
Bitcoin has ever seen. We're talking about flushing EVERYONE out. If you see Bitcoin break , you're gonna highly consider dumping if you
have any kind of real, substantial HODLing stack- cause why wouldn't you? If you have 10k BTC, wouldn't you want to potentially have 20k
BTC or much higher if you truly believe it will stand the Test of Time?

Those of you that know me from my previous account know that I have been talking about this scenario now for about the past year and a half.
There is a very high chance that these trend lines breaking will be exactly why this scenario plays out. That, or the US bans BTC outright.
I am not kidding when I say we WILL someday sooner than people think, be below triple digits. On the long term charts there are many technical
reasons as to why this not only can, but will happen. IF Bitcoin IS the future- people who aren't planning to use it for anything need to be
flushed out. A 5-20 year bear market will not only flush out all the pointless HODLers, but it will be the single biggest financial opportunity
of our lifetimes. It will also easily be the biggest financial opportunity for the next few hundred years. If you believe in the philosophy behind
Bitcoin and truly try your best to understand it, then like me, you would buy Bitcoin at even $14 should it get that far, right?

As I've stated plenty of times. Bitcoin has never truly had a bear market. Significant dips? Sure. Bitcoin is the first asset in history that
multiple times has lost 80%+ of its value and hit multiple ATH's thereafter, to my knowledge. From a high of nearly 20k to a low so far of
3.1k is childs play because of people believing that Bitcoin will ALWAYS go up. What if I told you that someday, Bitcoin will outright
erase 99.99% of its value? As in, drop to below $100 per BTC? And then turn around and hit multiple new all time highs? Would you even be able to
believe me? Someday, you will find out for yourself. Better start saving now because if indeed I am correct, the minute these trend lines break,
Bitcoin will be on its way to well below $100. It will take a very, very long time. The question is, if Bitcoin reaches below $100, will you have
the balls to not only buy it, but buy a substantial chunk? I know I will because I believe. This is the type of 'trade' where you can hand off your
holdings to your children. Your children can hand it off to their children, and your childrens children can hand it off to their grandchildren.
As in, this 'trade', IF it happens the way I think it will, will basically cause YOU to become one of the next financial elite. This is the
type of 'trade' that will ensure that no generation including yours will ever have to financially worry again. Literally ever.

코멘트

So, the long term trend lines. By the end of 2020, Bitcoin must be trading higher than or those trend lines no longer apply. Let me ask you.
Do you TRULY THINK that right now Bitcoin is worth 8k, let alone or 100k? What does it ACTUALLY DO? The ONLY thing Bitcoin is used for
is a speculation and financial manipulation instrument. Okay, maybe it can be a hedge to global financial collapse. MAYBE. But imagine that scenario
for just a moment. The world collapses and you want to use something that when it hits astronomical values clogs up when sending a transaction.
You'd rather use Bitcoin as money when the world collapses than something like Nano, which confirms almost instantaneously? As in, you go to a
grocery store and use Bitcoin to buy toilet paper. Does that even sound right to you? I guess one good thing about it is you could make a lot
of friends and have a lot of conversations while awaiting the actual confirmation so you can leave the store without having legally shoplifted.
SO, that's a plus, I guess.

WAKE THE FRIG UP, LAYHEY. You aren't going to sit and wait for BTC to confirm so you can leave the store. No, you're
going to find something else that gets you OUT of that store as fast as possible. So, let's circle back. What the frig does Bitcoin actually do?
Of course, Bitcoin is YOUR money. Nobody can take it from you unless you give in to a $5 rench attack. So, it's the peoples money. You can send it
uncensored to family members across the globe should they need it. Uhhh .. you can do that with other Crypto, MUCH FASTER. Bitcoin has a battle
tested and battle hardened blockchain which is about the only other good utility it has. Its blockchain has proven the Test of Time.
Still, you're not sending 2 billion dollars across the world. What the frig are you worried about blockchain security for to buy $2.23 toilet paper
at a grocery store after the world collapses? HELLO!? Any other thing you can think of as to why Bitcoin is so special? I can't. Then again,
it can be argued that Bitcoin is hands down the most important asset on the face of the planet. But then, that's another reason why these trend lines
breaking will be used as a method of manipulation. TO FLUSH YOU OUT. Think about it for a minute. If you had a lot of the most scarce and important
resource on Earth, wouldn't you want to take it away from bad people who are going to use it nefariously or irresponsibly? And especially, wouldn't
you want to take it from the people who aren't ever going to DO anything with it? Yeah. Think about it for a minute. These trend lines will break.
When they do, oh boy when they do..

Alts. When Bitcoin snaps that trend line with authority, you'd better hope you have some XRP. Some Tron, Dent, Fun, Metal, and especially Nano.
Good ole' Cripple, the Crypto I've hated on the most. lol whoops. Better hope you have some Cripple when that trend line snaps. Trust me. ;-)
For the record, I still hate Cripple. Oh, and get yourself some VET. Want a true risky moonshot? Buy FUN, RDD or OCN. Thank me in about 10-20 years.

TLDR: Let's take a look at just how crucial these trend lines really are:

Guess what?

It's becoming resistance, at least in the short term.
----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - ---

코멘트

5. Medium strength rejection of crucial 5 month RSI trendline after many overbought rejections.
There is a return to mean trend line as I like to call it in the RSI. This trend line I have had on my RSI for a few months now. When used
in conjunction with the daily and the 4h chart, it yields spectacular trading opportunities. On the 15th of February, the RSI plunged to
this trend line. After a brief re-test, Bitcoin confirmed this trend line as resistance and has now currently fallen roughly 17%.

Considering the length of time that this trend line has had such important reactions, I'm willing to bet that this trend line will be
very important in the many months to come. Put it on your RSI and I have a feeling you will find some unbelievably easy trading opportunites.

Daily:

4H:

Triple rejection on the 4h. yeet.
----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - ---

코멘트

Some other very crucial RSI observations:

Weekly RSI closed at 62, dipped and tested 60 and confirmed it as resistance. We are now testing 50 RSI on the weekly. A VERY important area.

Monthly RSI closed at 58 and is now testing the 56 region. There is a very important clue here as to what price action will likely do in
coming months, as the monthly is showing strong bearish divergence. The January price candle closed higher than the October candle.
The RSI however shows a higher october close with a lower January close. In the divergence cheat sheet shown above, this is strong bearish
divergence, which is the likely cause of our fall from 10.5k. For those that are unaware, bearish divergence almost always represents a
strong change of trend is incoming. The daily bearish divergence that happened at 10.5k caused us to plummet to the mid 8k region.
This, however, is not the daily or the weekly RSI. This is the monthly. This will be a very major reversal, but it will take some time.

----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - ---

코멘트

Last but not least, the cream of the crop. The rejection of a prior speculative 'B' wave Elliott Wave Theory retracement.

If you are not familiar with Elliott Wave Theory, I STRONGLY suggest you look into it. At the very least, learn the basics of an impulse wave,
and the many different variations of a corrective wave. I am a complete idiot at EWT, I will admit. I did notice something however, with the
use of Fibonacci Retracements. In February of 2018, Bitcoin dropped to $5,920 from a high on Bitstamp of $19,666. (666 again HAR HAR.)

Want to see something neat?

With Elliott Wave Theory and a bit of a brain, (which I don't have much of, BTW. If I can do this, you can too.) you would have bought almost the
EXACT bottom of Bitcoin when it plunged late 2018. Unfortunately, this is hindsight theory as I didn't know much about Fibs or EWT until
well after we bottomed out. Still, the reason this worked out so well is because of corrective waves. To me, this looks like a very standard
5-3-5 correction. 5 Waves down from ATH to ~$5,900. 3 Waves up from ~$5,900 to ~$11,700, and then 5 waves down from $11,700 to 3.1k.
Look into Elliott Wave Theory. I myself haven't gone that far down the rabbit hole but I certainly intend to make it one of my main methods of
finding speculative tops and bottoms with time.

ANYWAY. The reason I am mentioning this. This was a 5-3-5 ABC corrective pattern, in my opinion.
That said, on the weekly and monthly charts, Bitcoin rejected the prior high of the speculative 'B' wave from ATH:

This is not a good sign. Very strong chance we will get back above it later in 2020, but if I am indeed correct on my theory about a massive
multi-year shakeout, the next high that comes later this year will be Bitcoins final high until either shakeout, or death.
As in, when you see the $17,290+ double top late 2020, you better get ready to let go of all your bags. The amount of volume when we break past
will be absolutely enormous. Oh, and start saving every penny you can. There will be a fakeout prior to the real bottom- trade it but don't
fall for the hype of "Bitcoin has bottom!" that everyone will be shouting out a few years from now. There will be *far* more pain to come,
as if I am correct, it means that "Bitcoin has bottom!" will only be the halfway point to the real bear market bottom.

'Til I collapse
----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - --- ----- - ---

Much love everyone.
-Peewee

코멘트

$8.3 breaks with any kind of authoriy, and ...

Look out below, cap'n.

코멘트

Fun is coming.

코멘트

Be careful of the marked zone.
The ideal long entry if you're looking for one, is a 6h or ideally a daily close above this 1.618 and a re-test of it for support, in my opinion.
Otherwise, this 1.618 zone could send price back down below our local low.

코멘트

Just remember- we fell out of a bull flag on above average volume. So far, we've managed to creep back up into it, but have so far been denied at the mid line.

RSI on the 4h is just barely above that major trendline at 60- so an advancement here means 60 has to hold.
Volume isn't exactly great- but isn't horrible. Keep an eye on it.

2h looks good, RSI-wise. The MFI on the other hand, not so much.

30m is fugly

Zoomed out:

코멘트

Final thought:

4h still has a lot of room to run, as does the daily.
The daily is approaching and has already wicked into 50, but if we get above it, I get a feeling it won't stop there.
This is either the next leg up forming until the re-test of the RSI trend line, or we have already hit our local top.

Ultimately, this is weak as frig by my standards.
I feel like we're slowly on our way to $6,175 and when we get there, a major major bounce.
If we get to around 9.6k and get denied, we're headed straight toward 6k again.

Be careful here because the next movement will be a traB either way. Of that I'm positive.

GL and ML-
MC

코멘트

An interesting situation.
22 dawg, love truly does triumph all.

코멘트

This is taking too long, by my standards..

long? strong?
bout to get the friction on?

코멘트

hey punk, how lucky are ya feelin?

코멘트

Houston..

코멘트

...we may have a serious problem

코멘트

..a very, very serious problem.

코멘트

This justin!

A VERY real possibility!
#O

코멘트

The legit best hopium I can find.

코멘트

DANJA ICE BERG DEAD AHED

코멘트

One of the potentially last extremely high RR long entries here. As in, literally right here.

코멘트

If ever you were or are gonna pull the trigger, it's either now or never.

코멘트

So as I was saying..
You feelin' lucky, punk?

코멘트

Ahhhhh... sp yaa..

코멘트

Needsmoarvalium

코멘트

Just a hunch.

코멘트

P.s.
We break that trend line again with enough valium and..
well, it's over.

코멘트

Highlighted are the support zones should the magical line break.
These support zones are only assuming this is a low volume push. We see serious volume here and this thing could be back at 5k or less very quickly.

Beware of panic.

코멘트

Unless a lot of people are feeling like a hero, RIP