Bull run, retracement is here; what to expect?

업데이트됨

As I mentioned in my last 2 updates of the previous idea, the inverse H&S was confirmed and it reached its target near $7500.
I've deleted some circles and traced a new one and the new Fib level to see it better. The waves pattern has become more clear, however several possible continuations can be seen.
The impulse wave was actually a third wave, inside a more clear uptrend channel. It started each of its subwaves at circles intersections, as I've already noticed. For the retracement we have now a 0.382 new circle to follow, and we are about to reach a 4.236 older magenta circle that could push us down.
On the 2h chart we re on a stoch RSI bear cycle, on the daily chart the bull cycle is about to end. However on the daily chart (below) we didn't exit the large bear channel yet, and we have a large hidden bearish divergence starting since June 7th.
So, if we are about to go much higher, I expect a retrace to wave 5 at Fib level 0.382 (~$7000), where also circles would help (the 0.5 Fib circle); but we won't go above $8100. If we are very bullish we will retrace at 0.286 ($7214) where we also have a potential support and go to $8500 totally ending the bear market, but I doubt it. If we go at 0.5 Fib level, then this is a diagonal wave and not getting out of the uptrend channel. But if we go lower, then this was only an ABC correction in the global bear market; the big huge hidden bearish divergence (see thin black line below and the RSI) suggests that. Anything goes, so take care.

노트

Bulls are fighting hard to keep up this retrace, they hold us above the green circle. Only one magenta circle is pushing us down, but the circles cross point didn't break. Will the bulls resist above the green circle? if so, either the next steep magenta circle will send us down, or we retrace at 0.236 Fib level ($7214) which is very bullish.

노트

Except that wave 3 has been prolonged a little bit and Fib levels climbed a little, there is no much change for now. I still expect wave 5 to start at Fib level 0.382 (~$7068 now). But now retrace at Fib level 0.5 becomes also probable.

노트

Not much happened yet. I did some small correction to the circles and adjusted probable timings; they are sometimes hard to see on a very charged chart. Essentially we jumped from the 0.236 old circle to the 0.382 old circle inside the 0.236 new circle which didn't hold as support and turned into resistance. Bulls are fighting hard with it. The very old magenta outer circle tried to guide us down but failed for now, still remaining supportive. Right now we built a tiny bearish divergence on the 2h chart and a bear 2h cycle has started, so we should go a little down, but we might fail to go for retrace as low as 0.386 Fib level (corrected as $7080). So bull movement for the 5th wave might start at 0.236 Fib level ($7300) even if we've already been lower. BTC is weird sometimes. However a deeper retrace should happen after $8100 target of 5th wave (if the bulls succeed). Daily chart bear cycle didn't have a clear start yet.

노트

Indeed it was a small retrace. Bears were rejected on the support of the big 4.618 magenta circle at $7330; but it's not likely that this was the 4th wave! The bulls took control and hit the newest 0.236 circle, building a 2h bearish divergence. If this was the last subwave of the 3rd wave, it looks like an ending diagonal. The daily chart bear cycle didn't actually start but the hidden bearish divergence is becoming weaker. So I think we have three options:
1) we either retrace here, confirming the 2h bearish divergence, reinforce the daily hidden bearish divergence - this might tell that we actually ended an ABC pattern
2) maybe the wave 4 already happened but was insanely short, and we are now in the 1st subwave of wave 5; that should lead us on the contour of the 0.236 Fib circle up to $8150 or something, in spite of all bearish divergences - but the shortness of wave 4 also contradicts this scenario, it's more likely typical for a subwave retracement. But if this validates, we really enter in a bull market and the next retrace will be for consolidation; even if we can't be fully bullish below $9000.
3) maybe we are just finishing wave 3 with an ending diagonal, which will require a deeper retrace; bearish divergences and the start of bear cycles would rather want this to happen.
In 2 of 3 cases we need to go higher; let's see which validates.

노트

Wow! we've reached the top from June 4th! Maybe everybody is trying to see bullish waves too early! We are most likely building a triangle wave pattern (look at the daily chart below!) and just finished the C wave. If I am right, I will turn this into a new idea cause I think it deserves that! Really looks like an ascending triangle, the hidden bearish divergence is still technically valid so that should mean we have to start ASAP the D wave towards the bottom of the triangle, pushed by the double top we just had. Any bets? :)

노트

Ummm, sorry, I meant the "B" wave! :D

노트

So, the initial scenario seems to confirm, but we did not retrace wave 4 as low as I've expected. I kinda doubt we are still in wave 3, although patterns are not quite clear. The hidden bearish divergence on the daily chart was invalidated, but there still exists one at a larger scale, so I reiterate there will not be a full bullish breakout below $9000. Bulls tried hardly to prevent bear cycles to begin, but a lower retrace is still due, this is why the cup-and-handle pattern didn't yet break out; combined with the Elliott wave about to get to an end.

노트

We went higher than expected, and I think the bull run isn't over yet. I expect a bullish retrace at $7580 (0.382 Fib retrace of the main wave). That is if we aren't still in a subwave and retrace right here, ranging in the uptrend channel. If we retrace here, next stop should be $8700-8900. Otherwise, we are likely to go up to $9300. New circles are here: