비트코인숏
BTC will history repeat? flash crash? and how to trade
업데이트됨
First of all, I am neither bullish nor bearish on BTC in the long term. As of now, technical analysis shows me more bearish indications than bullish.
I have devided this analysis in two seperate parts. The upper part views BTC/USD on a logarithmic scale, we can see on this scale that BTC has been moving linearly on this logarihmic scale.
Last two rises that were followed by corrections back to this trendline were nearly identical in both time and percentages. The third rise has not touched this trendline yet and the timeperiod in which both previous corrections happend would suggest we are prime for lower numbers. Droppping down within a day would mean we would have an increase identical to the previous two shown. Either a fast break downwards happens or we consolidate further untill this trendline is reached.
As we can see in the lower part of the analysis, BTC is forming a bear flag. The price tried to break out but collided on an intersection of it's short term dowtrend (black line). Also, the price bounced of the fibonacci retracement perfectly, indicating we are going lower. Volume also indicates that we are going to see lower numbers. Bull volume has been low and bears are currently controlling the market. Bounces of the lower pennant line have been weak.
A bear flag is as the name suggests, a bearish pattern. Usually sending the price lower than previous low. Doing so would make BTC break down the long term pennant in which it is consolidating at the moment.
As mentioned before, we are already exceeding the time frame of both previous rises+corrections, which could mean we are in for a swift move downward. This could happen when the bullish pennant breaks downwards resulting in a flash crash. Bears are waiting for the pennant to break to open their shorts aswell as stop/losses that will be triggered if a new low would be made. This flash crash, triggering stoplosses could be the correction we need in order to touch the trendline.
The other scenario is we break the short term downtrend (black line) and we are on the way to either breaking or testing the upper line of the long term pennant. This would result in touching the trendline on the logarithmic scale after a longer correction/consolidation period than previous two. Bullish pennants have proven to be very predictable in Crpto, breaking upward most of the time.
How to trade this scenario?
If you are in FIAT: Buy if we break bullish (bear flag is broken upwards and the short term downtrend line is broken, which is the black line). Buy if a correction occurs.
If you are in BTC: Sell either if we break the bear flag, or if we break the pennant (be prepared and be fast fingered if this happens)
Where do we buy if a crash occurs?
The trend line on the logarithmic scale suggests we need to touch at least 10,5k. This numbers is also backed by the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
Keep in mind that a flash crash could send us to much lower numbers. 10,5k would probably not be the optimal trade entry as flash crashes can make prices very unpredictable.
The ETH flash crash send ETH from 317 USD to 0,10 cents because of a single sell order. Everything is possible.
If you have a stoploss set, make sure it's not set to sell at market price. Seeing what happend with the ETH flash crash, you could lose your whole capital, as some orders were filled to sell ETH at 0,10 cents during the flash crash.
Also be advised that a swift drop in price could mean that your stoploss is triggered but not filled due to the fast drop in price.
Let's be clear, I am not trying to spread FUD, I am trying to spread awareness of a possible scenario that could play out. Be prepared for such an event and know how to respond accordingly. Make your trading plan in advance so you know what to do if such events occur.
I have devided this analysis in two seperate parts. The upper part views BTC/USD on a logarithmic scale, we can see on this scale that BTC has been moving linearly on this logarihmic scale.
Last two rises that were followed by corrections back to this trendline were nearly identical in both time and percentages. The third rise has not touched this trendline yet and the timeperiod in which both previous corrections happend would suggest we are prime for lower numbers. Droppping down within a day would mean we would have an increase identical to the previous two shown. Either a fast break downwards happens or we consolidate further untill this trendline is reached.
As we can see in the lower part of the analysis, BTC is forming a bear flag. The price tried to break out but collided on an intersection of it's short term dowtrend (black line). Also, the price bounced of the fibonacci retracement perfectly, indicating we are going lower. Volume also indicates that we are going to see lower numbers. Bull volume has been low and bears are currently controlling the market. Bounces of the lower pennant line have been weak.
A bear flag is as the name suggests, a bearish pattern. Usually sending the price lower than previous low. Doing so would make BTC break down the long term pennant in which it is consolidating at the moment.
As mentioned before, we are already exceeding the time frame of both previous rises+corrections, which could mean we are in for a swift move downward. This could happen when the bullish pennant breaks downwards resulting in a flash crash. Bears are waiting for the pennant to break to open their shorts aswell as stop/losses that will be triggered if a new low would be made. This flash crash, triggering stoplosses could be the correction we need in order to touch the trendline.
The other scenario is we break the short term downtrend (black line) and we are on the way to either breaking or testing the upper line of the long term pennant. This would result in touching the trendline on the logarithmic scale after a longer correction/consolidation period than previous two. Bullish pennants have proven to be very predictable in Crpto, breaking upward most of the time.
How to trade this scenario?
If you are in FIAT: Buy if we break bullish (bear flag is broken upwards and the short term downtrend line is broken, which is the black line). Buy if a correction occurs.
If you are in BTC: Sell either if we break the bear flag, or if we break the pennant (be prepared and be fast fingered if this happens)
Where do we buy if a crash occurs?
The trend line on the logarithmic scale suggests we need to touch at least 10,5k. This numbers is also backed by the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement.
Keep in mind that a flash crash could send us to much lower numbers. 10,5k would probably not be the optimal trade entry as flash crashes can make prices very unpredictable.
The ETH flash crash send ETH from 317 USD to 0,10 cents because of a single sell order. Everything is possible.
If you have a stoploss set, make sure it's not set to sell at market price. Seeing what happend with the ETH flash crash, you could lose your whole capital, as some orders were filled to sell ETH at 0,10 cents during the flash crash.
Also be advised that a swift drop in price could mean that your stoploss is triggered but not filled due to the fast drop in price.
Let's be clear, I am not trying to spread FUD, I am trying to spread awareness of a possible scenario that could play out. Be prepared for such an event and know how to respond accordingly. Make your trading plan in advance so you know what to do if such events occur.
노트
Fibonacci tells us we bounced from the retracement lines perfecty. Altho we have not seen a strong bounce. We also did not manage to break previous "high" yet. Most likely going sideways for a while untill we break prior resistance at 11.6k again.Further observations tell us that mid january has been a bad time for Bitcoin overall. Last 4 years, each monthly candle on january was red.
2015 - Low was Jan 15
2016 - Low was Jan 16
2017 - Low was Jan 12
2018 - Low soon to come?
노트
Other possibility is another bearish flag forming, which can be confirmed by looking at the volume. We can see the volume is decreasing while it is moving towards it's decision point (break either below lower bear flag line or break above the blue line of previous high)노트
scenario update: bearish pennant forming, 0.5 FIBO retracement was touched nearly perfectly. Target for next move down 9480 USD. Fear might kick in beneath 10k 거래청산: 타겟 닿음
we hit that target perfectly. exactly one the line with a strong bounce off :) 
My ideas are not meant for trading advice, always do your own research. Always be prepared for bull and bear scenarios
If my ideas were helpfull, feel free to donate here: 1Kufwyg8tq8s76SUfCPvCZUVgLxSha8UZZ
If my ideas were helpfull, feel free to donate here: 1Kufwyg8tq8s76SUfCPvCZUVgLxSha8UZZ
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