The probability of bitcoin ending the year above $10,000 is 16 percent while the odds of prices challenging the June 2019 high of $13,880 by December are 8 to 10 percent, the data shows.
Options are derivative contracts that give buyers a right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset at a specific price (known as the strike price) on or before the specified date. A call option gives the buyer the right to buy, while the purchaser of the put option has the right to sell.
The probabilities are calculated with the help of the Black-Scholes formula, which is based on key metrics including call options’ prices, strike prices, the price of the underlying asset, the "risk-free" interest rate on investments such as U.S. Treasurys and the options’ time of maturity.
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