Bitcoin: Fake Out To Lower Prices?

2022년 6월 5일

The recent Bitcoin fake out off of the 32K resistance boundary is very telling. When break out attempts fail in this way, not only does it confirm internal weakness, but has also lured more longs who will further add to the selling momentum IF Bitcoin breaks the minor 29 to 28K support area over the coming week. Were you lured into the long as a result of over exaggerated and unsubstantiated hype proliferated from your favorite fake guru?

NOTHING has changed in terms of price structure and levels now for two weeks. I have been emphasizing the 32 to 34K LOWER HIGH resistance zone for WEEKS. As long as this resistance area is respected, Bitcoin is NOT BULLISH. Any talk, analysis or overly dramatic hype of higher prices is NOT in line with the price structure OR the current economic environment.

Charts do not trade in isolation. Macro fundamentals are the unseen catalyst that help shape market potential, reasonable expectations and scenarios. If you are unable to connect the relationship between the broader economic environment and your market in question, then you are simply playing a gigantic slot machine. You may think you are "informed" but if mainstream financial entertainment is what you are consuming (or worse Tik Tok) then you are only fooling yourself.

99% of the information you consume is useless in terms of making rational trade or investment decisions. A chart can provide a reliable source of information IF you know what to look for and what to compare it to. Someone in one of my recent streams mentioned that I was bullish on Bitcoin a year ago, and now I am bearish at these same levels. A year ago, the 30K area was a HIGHER LOW within a broader bullish trend and a generally supportive environment. The PRICE STRUCTURE and ENVIRONMENT have changed a lot since then and I adjust expectations to be in line with the market. Not peoples opinions, etc.

For the coming week, IF the 29 to 28K support breaks, then the test of 25K is still within reason. We have a highly vulnerable stock market, oil prices continuing to push higher and interest rates still rising which are all bearish factors. A dramatic break in the stock market can affect Bitcoin since it has a tendency to follow the S&P. If 25K is cleared quickly, then 20K becomes the next level to watch for,

Please keep in mind, the view that I am writing about is relative to larger time frame strategies like swing trades and investments. How can this help? Avoid aggressive long ideas, there is very limited potential there right now. Look for selling opportunities at resistance levels (conservative) or if you are more aggressive and understand the risk (and how to control it) consider the bearish break out at the 29 to 28K areas. (I don't short Bitcoin).

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.