BTC IS STILL CORRECTING

어제

Key Observations:

Recent Price Action:

Bitcoin is trading at $95,563, finding support near the 50-day SMA, currently at $95,000.

The recent high of $108,400 marked the peak of the rally before the ongoing correction began.

The rejection from $99,860 and the lower high formation highlight weakening bullish momentum in the short term.

Support and Resistance Levels:

Support:

Immediate support lies at the 50-day SMA ($95,000), a critical level for maintaining short-term structure.

Stronger support lies around $89,000, which aligns with prior consolidation and psychological significance.

$73,835: A critical horizontal level that must hold to preserve the broader macro bullish trend.

Resistance:

$99,860: Former support now acting as a strong resistance level; Bitcoin needs to reclaim this level for a bullish continuation.

$108,400: Recent high and critical resistance to surpass for resuming the uptrend.

Volume:

Volume during the pullback remains relatively low compared to the rally, suggesting profit-taking rather than aggressive selling.

Any significant move needs a volume increase to confirm the trend direction.

RSI Analysis:

RSI is trending near 45, reflecting bearish momentum but not yet oversold.

No clear bullish divergence has emerged, which would indicate potential for an imminent reversal.

Interpretation:

Correction Underway:

The failure to hold above $99,860 and the rejection from $108,400 signal a short-term correction.

Price action hovering near the 50-day SMA at $95,000 suggests this is a critical support level to watch.

Potential Scenarios:

Bullish Case:

Bitcoin holds above $95,000 (50-day SMA) and consolidates, forming a higher low.

A successful reclaim of $99,860 would indicate a potential retest of $108,400.

Bearish Case:

A break below $95,000 could accelerate the correction toward $89,000 or deeper, testing $73,835 as the next major support.

Bitcoin is undergoing a healthy correction after peaking at $108,400, with support currently holding at $95,000 (50-day SMA). The break below $99,860 confirmed short-term bearish momentum, and a further drop to $89,000 is possible if $95,000 fails. The broader bullish trend remains intact, but Bitcoin needs to reclaim $99,860 to confirm a reversal and retest the highs. Monitor the 50-day SMA, volume, and RSI for indications of the next move.