BTCUSD 4 MONTH OUTLOOK

2018년 12월 21일

In this analysis we are looking at the 5 day chart which is very similar to the 1 week chart but gives us a little bit different perspective and we like to study multiple time frames to make a well balanced outlook. So here goes... Right off the bat it's clear we have a very bullish reversal but the question is... where is the target? Market makers will be looking for some point such as a fib level, previous resistance and support levels, moving averages both simple and exponential etc. Make no mistake, even though things are looking suprisingly bullish lately, we are still in a bear market and there will be further dowside balance.

Our analysis leads us to believe that there will be another strong candle to the upside on this 5 hour chart. The target we have in mind is a peak to peak trendline (blue) that is roughly following the 20 SMA. So that would take us to 5000 on the low side and about 5500 on the high side and with this time span chart it is tough to nail it but as we get closer to the target we can reassess.

As you can see we have penciled in what we feel to be an approximation of the price action over the next 4 months, (green line and showing some potential sell areas in green circles). One of the obvious struggles evident in the chart is the 50 SMA (blue) moving down inevitably to pass through the 200 SMA (pink). Our chart indicates a crossing point around about the middle of March (yellow circle). This will certainly depress the price action and flatten it to the lower range of our rising bottom blue trend line perhaps even revisiting or eclipsing past lows of the 3200 area, however we feel that there will still be support at this range and are not calling for big moves under 2900 at this point although a shadow candle may poke through.

Once this hurdle is cleared we can then start the next bullish wave higher, hopefully sometime around the first week of May. For now we recommend holding and riding out the next few months but if you are willing to gamble part of your holdings then watch for the reversal that is expected between 5 and 5.5K to potentially increase your stake. If you think you missed the bottom and your FOMO is setting in, don't panic... we feel there will still be at least two good entry opportunities ahead of us in the next weeks (red circles).

Of course there is always the potential that it may break lower once the wedge formation completes, but we are staying very optomistic untill we see indications otherwise.

On the indicator sections you can see some great progress on the Stochastic RSI showing a break to the high side already, however MACD won't make it's bullish cross until the first or even second week of January. That's about it, thanks for reading. Happy face emoji... lol.