롱

correction is almost over

업데이트됨

Price action is nearing the bottom of the parallel channel from top 1-3
On H4 and H1 I can see price grinding a bit lower the rest of the day, toward 7500-7600. Personally I'm not interested in that move, it's only a few pips away.
At which point we should see a bullish divergence on smaller time frame

I'm not expecting a squeeze from here, shorts are too low
But btcusd:longs have been going down more

In an ideal scenario we would see a slow raise toward blue resistance, followed by a sharp move to retest the channel
That would allow our daily indicators to bounce off their median
Remember, wave 4 is often noticeable on those by doing so
Watch macd and Rsi for that
And Stoch should reset a bit lower, near the bottom

That would be our buy signal, to enter a long i'd personally wait to see that scenario (symbolized with black arrows on chart and indicators)

In term of target, i'm looking at the blue box, 9800 to 12000 is a wide area.
But to reach anything above 9800 we would have to break outside of the channel, that's an option for a wave 5 but not my favorite scenario at the moment. Yet something very specific to watch for when placing your take profit.

The wave II target is very hypothetical, once again a wave 5 is driven by fear, so let's keep in mind how fast and low this can go once greed kicks in a few pips away from target.

*timing matters a lot, price can exit the channel in either (and consecutively both) direction, once at the top, especially recommend to be watching price closely on 8/9 and 8/18 when major trend-line intersect

노트

i think this is it for wave 4.

We are outside of the chanel now but...
RSI and stoch looks good
And a decent div on macd on H1 and H2

I'd like to see this daily close inside the channel
Monthly close was at 7800, a close of this daily candle above would be encouraging, and would probably form a bullish candlestick like a hammer.
Or else for price to glide upward (on the outside) along the channel

Then i'd like to see something similar to the first "slow move up - sharp shakeout" i illustrated with arrow under the blue line
That would be my personal entry point for a long

노트

BTC managed to break back inside the channel and followed scenario 1 for a few hours
But broke back out overnight
So we are now left with scenario 2, this chart illustrate this
Notice that most indicators are now set where I wanted them
RSI is curving up
MACD histo ls near median
And stoch has pretty much bottomed out

I'm personally still out of any position, i've been since I got spooked out of my short position (wrongly) at 8300
I'll be looking to re-enter with a long if blue line got broken and retested with success

If you are looking at a more aggressive trade, a break below 7450 or above 7620 would be option for respectively, short trigger and long trigger trade. But I don't recommend it, those are area were price can turn around sharply with false breakout.

Other view on alts doesn't look good at all. Eth is playing around with printing a lower low, IOTA broke support at 0.9... And that make me think of 2 things :
1)accumulation before a rally (finally !)
2)Btc will break support at 7400
That's not really helpful since it basically mean we can go either up or down from here. But i really don't see any hint at one scenario more likely than the other.

Due to that, i will trade the BTC chart with more caution than I would otherwise.
To be mentioned, even if there is a certain short potential, I do not see a trade set-up i'd like to take yet. We are too close to support for that.

노트

i'm still outside of any position, but kinda regret i closed my short so prematurely...

On the left side is the fib level for this move as a completed wave 1
On the right side for it as wave iv of 1
They bot give similar fib targets

Near that is the top dotted blue line, neckline support from IHnS
The second one is from the support made by wave ii of ... ?

We had a red descending channel, that broke
Target is often the width of it, from breakout point, symbolized by double ended arrow

We are now trading back inside the ending diagonal, if the blue line breaks, if the black line break also, next target would be at the bottom...

What we might see today is a retest of the channel, probably a huge green inside candle.

for price to be bullish we would have to break thru those red line, and then outside of the top descending black one

노트

best thing we can hope for now is a short squeeze
the set up is there... will see
we are close to cci MA
next H4 candle is gonna be very important
blue support line at 6100 is critical.