BTCUSD 1D chart (6/17/2019)
업데이트됨
Good morning, traders. As I warned on Friday, "...what appears to be a wedge, many times, is nothing more than price grinding toward channel resistance and when it pops through it usually makes quite the move." After this weekend, price now sits ~$1000 higher while printing a large ~$1350 engulfing candle. Is it a bullish engulfing candle? I don't believe it fits the definition since there wasn't a downtrend, rather just a 1 period drop followed by that candle. That said, it's still bullish and it makes more sense for traders to look for higher highs than lower highs at this time. In terms of the VPVR, we can see that price is clearly above the highest volume nodes which generally means that it's easier for price to move up higher than it is to drop lower. The relevant weekly/monthly pivots are labeled in purple, and they are probably the most useful targets of all right now.
Those of you that have been following me for a while know that I've had issues with potential Elliott Wave counts. I've provided a few different possible counts, but have always lamented that I cannot drop a line from the bottom of wave 2 to the possible wave 4 bottom. There has also been the confusion amongst EW traders about whether we are in the 3rd or 5th wave (although it seems that most have delegated price to the 5th wave at this time). But what if this is the count? What if wave 3 doesn't begin until the break through $4000? If so, then all of the sudden the count becomes much easier with the consolidation under $5000 being subwave 2 of wave 3 and the hard drop in May being subwave 4 of wave 3. That would most likely have us in subwave 5 of wave 3 right now. Using the large ascending channel as a guide for wave 4, based on wave 2, then that would give us a wave 3 target of the ascending channel's EQ just above the daily R2 pivot and the 2018 TR's resistance, most likely near the monthly R1 pivot which would occur by the end of the month. We would then see price retrace for about 2-3 weeks during July as it prints wave 4, followed by a large move up for wave 5. Where would wave 5 target? Based on the channel, it seems most likely that we would see it target the top of the ascending channel around the R2 pivot/4.618 extension ($22,000-$24300).
Again, for those of you who have been following me, these targets aren't surprising. It is the same thing I have been mentioning for months now, except we have a lot more data to support such a move. This would also mean that $10,000-$12,000 likely becomes the floor for wave 2 before the next push up. For those of you still interested in the parabola, this count gives us the first base at subwave 2 of wave 3, second base at subwave 4 of wave 3, and third base at wave 4. Remember, what I've said about parabolic movement off the 3rd base -- it generally provides 100%+ in movement which means we should expect the blow off top around ~$20,000 or more. Finally, don't forget, the expectation is for retail to finally start FOMOing in as price moves through $10,000, and especially when it moves through the top of the 2018 TR just under $12,000.
I am going to take a look at LTCUSD, XRPUSD, and ETHUSD during this morning's video, as well as a deeper look at what I am discussing here, so be sure to check in at the YouTube link below.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Those of you that have been following me for a while know that I've had issues with potential Elliott Wave counts. I've provided a few different possible counts, but have always lamented that I cannot drop a line from the bottom of wave 2 to the possible wave 4 bottom. There has also been the confusion amongst EW traders about whether we are in the 3rd or 5th wave (although it seems that most have delegated price to the 5th wave at this time). But what if this is the count? What if wave 3 doesn't begin until the break through $4000? If so, then all of the sudden the count becomes much easier with the consolidation under $5000 being subwave 2 of wave 3 and the hard drop in May being subwave 4 of wave 3. That would most likely have us in subwave 5 of wave 3 right now. Using the large ascending channel as a guide for wave 4, based on wave 2, then that would give us a wave 3 target of the ascending channel's EQ just above the daily R2 pivot and the 2018 TR's resistance, most likely near the monthly R1 pivot which would occur by the end of the month. We would then see price retrace for about 2-3 weeks during July as it prints wave 4, followed by a large move up for wave 5. Where would wave 5 target? Based on the channel, it seems most likely that we would see it target the top of the ascending channel around the R2 pivot/4.618 extension ($22,000-$24300).
Again, for those of you who have been following me, these targets aren't surprising. It is the same thing I have been mentioning for months now, except we have a lot more data to support such a move. This would also mean that $10,000-$12,000 likely becomes the floor for wave 2 before the next push up. For those of you still interested in the parabola, this count gives us the first base at subwave 2 of wave 3, second base at subwave 4 of wave 3, and third base at wave 4. Remember, what I've said about parabolic movement off the 3rd base -- it generally provides 100%+ in movement which means we should expect the blow off top around ~$20,000 or more. Finally, don't forget, the expectation is for retail to finally start FOMOing in as price moves through $10,000, and especially when it moves through the top of the 2018 TR just under $12,000.
I am going to take a look at LTCUSD, XRPUSD, and ETHUSD during this morning's video, as well as a deeper look at what I am discussing here, so be sure to check in at the YouTube link below.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
노트
Earlier this year I looked at the correlation with EUR/USD and BTC/USD. If the correlation is true, and this chart from January continues to play out as I saw it back then, it's just another bit of support for higher BTC prices.
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