Zooming Out on Bitcoin - $13,868 - What will happen?

2020년 10월 29일

This monthly view shows that Bitcoin is at a pivotal price to position itself to reach the all time highs from 2017.
My projection, based on timing of previous 4 year cycle is that this could take place by March/April of 2021.

In July, we broke out of the long term down trend (see gold trend line) and have retested it and seem to be breaking out convincingly, which makes me lean in a more bullish direction for this longer term view.
Also, we are close to having the 2nd highest monthly close in the history of Bitcoin.

There are 3 paths that I see Bitcoin possibly choosing, the first 2 seem more likely based on current news and what I see happening in the crypto space in general.

1) We see continuation, breaking past this $13,868 resistance within the next month, and start heading towards the all time high.
2) We form a Cup & Handle, which would delay things by a month or 2 before we retest the $13,868 resistance again.

Least Likely scenario, in my opinion:
3) We break down from here, unable to retest $13,868 resistance and move into a month long equilibrium that would need to find a higher low somewhere above $3,858.
A big stock market drop or a significant reaction to negative Covid news would be the most likely cause of such a move, and it would probably have a significant impact on the timeline of reaching the previous all time high.


Thanks for taking a look. I'm curious if you have similar expectations or if you have a more bearish view.