BTCUSD long term trend

Normal development until Jan 2013

Cyprus crysis in Apr 2013 then consolidation on higher level until Oct 2013

Oct-Dec 2013 Willy bot pumps the price level over 1000 USD - there is no economic base for that high price level

Investors (not users) are in conflict with their investment which leads to another consolidation with a dip down to the previous consolidation level in Jan 2015

Since Jan 2015 the user base and transaction rate has been grown. It looks like 200 to 230 USD is the price level equilibrium. The market is waiting for regulation, investment tools for bigger capital and a solution for the scalability problem (20MB blocksize?). When that will come in the second half of 2015 then new money inflow will drive the price up. If not it will take longer. The block halving in 2016 will bring an additional incentive and impact on the price level.