ATH correction scenario, bottom-heavy triangle could drop to 9K

2018년 1월 12일

Thanks to some "Korea Bans Bitcoin" FUD news, we slammed into the existing [orange] triangle floor a little too hard and various exchanges busted the previously solid rising trendline (except Bitfinex). This sets up a possible lower [yellow] triangle floor as we slowly, carefully rebound from this danger zone. Bulls are not climbing strong here, nerves have been rattled, so even a presumed run to the top of the triangle would likely run out of steam around 15,300-15,500 (16K is commonly hoped for but would be max). In this scenario, the next selloff wave would prove too heavy for the triangle to hold, and we'd fall out the bottom first to 11K, with a minor dead cat bounce before the last drive down to the bottom of this pitchfork around 9K. Obviously such a dive would be very brief, just kissing that low point and then springing back up again to the familiar 14K consolidation zone we've been playing in so long.

And NO, such a spike to 9K isn't so damn dire folks :P Wouldn't mean the death of anything, in fact bitcoin would still recover nicely and continue slowly up the recent overall bull trend. This is just about blowing off steam from the steep rise to the ATH near 20K.

2018년 1월 14일

액티브 트레이드

14,500 has been a major S/R level for a while, so not surprised this slow crawl rally took a break and pulled back. The question is whether the bulls (who haven't been showing much vigor) will take this another $1000 up before collapsing of exhaustion, or do we just start sliding from here?

2018년 1월 14일

액티브 트레이드

pullback reached the new yellow triangle floor, but that's a heavy retrace for what was supposed to be a rise past 14400. bulls might just not make it any higher, so I'm just waiting for us to drop below the yellow line

2018년 1월 16일

액티브 트레이드

triangle bottom breached again (yellow). we've had our chances to bounce higher, and they have all faltered. Wave III has likely begun, panic selling will likely push it a bit farther than 11K double bottom from the first ATH selloff.

2018년 1월 16일

액티브 트레이드

different view, showing an intersection that could catch this current drop at 11.5K and allow a minor bounce before dropping more

2018년 1월 16일

액티브 트레이드

That's the end of any short-term bull hopes right there. Triangle is definitively busted, we're on the road back to the long-term median trend. China news of banning centralized trading certainly helped ;) reuters.com/article/us-china-bitcoin/china-to-block-cryptocurrency-platforms-that-allow-centralized-trading-bloomberg-idUSKBN1F41G9

2018년 1월 17일

거래청산: 타겟 닿음

well the bears had no patience once the blood started. we're already punching the bottom of this pitchfork hard, and there's a decent chance it will go deeper on this slide. But as far as I'm concerned, I've simply been expecting a harmonic touch of the bottom channel edge (opposite the bulltrap) and we got it. Could rebound up to 12,800 from here, that would be the 0.705 OTE retrace, but that's most optimistic scenario, we'll be sliding down this bear channel for a while still

2018년 1월 17일

노트

Been posting this full-year 2017 rally view for a while. Note the fractals in the corrections. We've now perfectly repeated the double-dip bear channel formation. I wouldn't be surprised to see us level off and gradually get back on a bull trend

2018년 1월 18일

노트

Possible rebound scenario. Yes, I think we found the local bottom on this selloff, but I don't see us blowing past 14K anytime soon. At best will take some time to settle into consolidation to convince the bulls we aren't going to plunge back to sub-9K. Would expect 12,800 first target for this bounce, then maybe 13,500 max touching the underside of the yellow triangle before collapsing again

2018년 1월 18일

노트

strong rebound looking at 13,200 target, then back down to 11,200

2018년 1월 21일

노트

the rebound could follow this path -- and then if you believe the bears calling for 8K (or lower), this is how we might repeat the bulltrap (this time running out of steam at 13,600-14,600) and slump all over again

2018년 1월 23일

거래청산: 타겟 닿음

Please note -- even though it looks like price is still following my original zig-zag sketch, since we hit my 9K target zone *early*, I've already moved on to a new forecast, with 8K happening after another bulltrap -- but this pitchfork is still very much framing the price action nicely. See the "related ideas" below...