First off this time is not different. It's all same, all market psychology. After all, we are human beings with similar greed and fear.
Why you may ask?
Simple Reasons:
1) Market will go through a disinflationary bust. Every asset will regress to its mean value or below.
2) S1F and S2F models don't take into factor black swan events like this and I believe in lengthening cycle theory with the same price prediction.
3) Something unexpected happened in the market in the last few weeks. Euphoria is over the top: overleveraged, overhyped, overbought.
4) Crypto market is still highly correlated with the equity market because of liquidity/ high volume.
5) DXY and bonds are breaking out to the upside. Crypto is inversely correlated to bonds and USD.
When?
- I don't have my crystal ball with me right now, but my intuition tells me soon. I may be wrong but in the coming weeks or two months.
How to survive?
- Set tight stop losses on all your long-term holdings.
- OR Sell everything.
- Buy bonds.
I didn't want to publish anything this year as I explained in my last post, but this is important and I don't want anyone to lose everything you gained so far.
Why you may ask?
Simple Reasons:
1) Market will go through a disinflationary bust. Every asset will regress to its mean value or below.
2) S1F and S2F models don't take into factor black swan events like this and I believe in lengthening cycle theory with the same price prediction.
3) Something unexpected happened in the market in the last few weeks. Euphoria is over the top: overleveraged, overhyped, overbought.
4) Crypto market is still highly correlated with the equity market because of liquidity/ high volume.
5) DXY and bonds are breaking out to the upside. Crypto is inversely correlated to bonds and USD.
When?
- I don't have my crystal ball with me right now, but my intuition tells me soon. I may be wrong but in the coming weeks or two months.
How to survive?
- Set tight stop losses on all your long-term holdings.
- OR Sell everything.
- Buy bonds.
I didn't want to publish anything this year as I explained in my last post, but this is important and I don't want anyone to lose everything you gained so far.
노트
prnt.sc/ylkftyStock2Flow model. How I believe it would react in the face of a black swan!
면책사항
이 정보와 게시물은 TradingView에서 제공하거나 보증하는 금융, 투자, 거래 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권고 사항을 의미하거나 구성하지 않습니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참고하세요.
면책사항
이 정보와 게시물은 TradingView에서 제공하거나 보증하는 금융, 투자, 거래 또는 기타 유형의 조언이나 권고 사항을 의미하거나 구성하지 않습니다. 자세한 내용은 이용 약관을 참고하세요.