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$BTC - Pullback to Discount Level, Then Bullish Smart Money

업데이트됨

*SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.

Bitcoin is pulling up to possibly reach above the current small liquidity high resting near $50,850. I can see it pushing up a little harder to take out people thinking this is a "Resistance" level but then going to the median bearish order block of $51,3385 before getting pushed back down into the 1-hour fair value gap which is an imbalance that needs to be filled. Or it could simply touch the bottom of the 1 hour fari value gao from the "great fall" last week, and turn bearish and into the newly created 1 hour fair value gap, which is an imbalance it would most likely pursue and fill. At the bottom of this imbalance is the 61.8% (Discount level) of the fib if you place it at the recent current low to the current recent high. This area is also near the 4-hour Fair Value Gap bottom. So all of these confluences make sense as to where it would go before moving bullish. So I have the entry price as $49,160.

Now the target is above the current high and it's the next tiny 1-hour order block at around $52,645.So to be safe I put my target at $52,640.
See Chart

I'm giving it until the end of the week to make this happen so we have a nice green weekly candle.

If there are any Smart Money / ICT students out there that have any critiques or suggestions, please let me know what you think. Agina, this is not the retail way of thinking, if you tell me a Trend line and a triangle is going to somehow magically make the price do something, I would point you toward what the chart usually does and that is attack liquidity and balance. And I believe this idea has both.

Cheers and happy trading.

P.S. I'm still holding my trade from "The great fall" from last week. I knew it would come up but I'm just hoping it comes up quicker because my time decay is killing me on my futures call.

노트

Getting in a little closer I can see that there are equal lows which would lead to the price striking below to flood liquidity into the market. So watch out for an entry price like $48,850 possibly striking down to the an imbalance on a 5 min chart that would be as low as $48,255. Here's the chart of such depiction. It's still within my original idea, it just depends on how close you want to watch for something like this for one entry, if you want to set multiple entries, or whatever your preference may be
(Chart)

액티브 트레이드

Gotta love nailing that entrance!

노트

Just FYI I did take 65% of my profits at around $51,015 and moved the stop loss to just under the fair value gap at round $47,785 because if it pulls back and hits my strop loss, I'm still at a 30% gain.

액티브 트레이드

One more update before I go to bed. It does not look like this thing is bound to go lower. There are no Equal lows now as we have dipped into that liquidity I don't think we'll be getting lower than that second entrance I called of 48,850. It Could enclosed the 1 hour Fair Value Gap that it hasn't fully enclosed. And possible get to the body of the Bullish order block around 49287. The we hope to see some upsteam as it leaves another small order block above to hopefilly seek out that imbalance ans head toward the somewhat equal highs above. All depicted and charted here

Hopefully I wake up tomorrow with a decent bag to look forward to

거래청산: 스탑 닿음

Im out with current move the stop loss, gained 30%. But if You still haven't moved you're stop loss your still in and possibly will be until the end because it's hitting a bullish order block right now and going back up. I'm about to put a second trade on this right now

노트

The Williams %R is low which means that the volitility isn't there to drive it down further. Ibelieve it will come back up and take out the short term highs and the somewhat equal highs.