"Real value" of BTC, thoughts

2017년 12월 30일

As a result of the ongoing fall of BTC, there is a lot of talks going on about the "real value" of BTC and the magnitude of the hype.

Here is my take on it:
- before the last, normal-weekly correction (2015-01-25) highest-OBV was 2,2m. At this OBV-level the close-prices were 920USD (2013-11-25) and 2349USD (2017-05-29).
- let's accept 2017-05-29 close price as a "real price": 2349 USD (at OBV 2.2m)
- since 2017-06-05, OBV has grown roughly ~30%.
-so superroughly 2349*1,3 = 3054. (which - by the way - corresponds quite well with middle level of Keltner 100, 1.618.)
-so in my mind BTC is ~4 times overhyped and running without any weekly correction since 2015-01-02 (!).


Weakness of this line of thought:
- OBV-price relation is more complex
- Daily-based corrections might do for correction in such a speedy market
- BTC-beleivers says that the promise is a new financial system and the value isn't the market value.


Personally:
- I think it is overhyped, but will not fall as of now
- The continuous hard-forks feels spooky to me (26 by now?)
- Winklevoss-twins as a face of bitcoin do not correspond in me with Satoshi's or Szabo's freedom-loving geniusness, dignity and goodwill.
- The way in which Winklevoss-twins-billionaires boosting the hype feels somewhat irresponsible to me (cryptos are risky, and if down the line BTC falls big, small Jennifers/Joes will lose, not them) -- they feel like "a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing."

This is NOT a trading advice, but comments/criticism welcome!