BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (2/6/2019)

2019년 2월 6일

Good morning, traders. Overnight saw Bitcoin finally falling through the bottom of the ascending channel. As I have been warning, failure of follow through on a break through resistance will likely result in price continuing to head lower. That strength into the end of the daily candle yesterday printed a bullish cross on the MACD which has since turned into a potential bearish cross today. I say "potential" because we need to wait for the daily candle to close in order to confirm it. Furthermore, there was no follow through on the bullish SFP that printed as well.

Price is now printing a symmetrical triangle after the $100 drop, but it looks weak suggesting a further move down. In terms of a TR, we have potentially only seen the beginning of this one with the January 28th low marking the lower bounds and the January 30th high marking the upper bounds. This is the blue channel and is something I discussed as a possibility about a week ago. Is this trading range a shorter-term redistribution or accumulation? There's no way to know at the moment. The expectation should be a further drop toward the bottom of the blue TR, likely around $3300 (or, with enough FOMO on the drop, potentially $3260 to tag the bottom of the larger descending channel), and print an ST. Ideally, we will see a bullish SFP print at that time and have price pushing back up toward the top of the TR. If price moves as such, but doesn't break yesterday's high, then it is much more likely to be redistribution and we will be looking for price to head lower after that, once it breaks the swing low. However, if it is accumulation, then we will see a target of $3640/90 and the greatest likelihood of that lower low being the second bottom in a double bottom pattern.

A further breakdown a-la redistribution threatens the larger descending wedge that price has been printing since the January high and signals a likely retest of the 2018 low. But a move up via accumulation in this local TR would signal a clean bullish break through the green descending wedge's resistance and create a target of $3950, at this time, which is also the major resistance holding back a possible move up to the low-to-mid 5000s.

H1 RSI is hugging oversold and the MACD is curled up toward the signal line attempting to push toward a bullish cross. H4 RSI is just a bit above oversold which means there's still room for that above-mentioned drop in price. So far, this recent drop's H4 volume has been significantly less than the volume on the SC leading into the blue TR. Daily volume is rivaling yesterday's and we still have more than 1/3 of the day left. Daily RSI remains within the descending wedge it's been printing since December.

We are going to take a look at BTCUSD shorts, longs, and volatility during this morning's live stream, as well as USOIL (which is following the path I outlined a few days back), DJI, and maybe even some FOREX.

Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.

Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.