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BTCUSD Falling wedge to breakout to $4400

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BTC is stuck in a falling wedge which can breakout to around $4400. It’s possible that BTC will first dump further to $3175 or bit more before the breakout.

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So far, everything is on track. This should be the beginning of corrective wave A. Target is still $4400, could take 1-2 weeks.

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To add continuity, we first need to set a higher high above $3625. We seem to be on track for that.

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Price needs to stay above $3383 for things to stay bullish and it needs a clear break of $3515 to continue the rally. A repetitive failure to break above $3515 might cause a dump to $3400. Falling in price is okay as long as it stay above $3383 or even better $3400.

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Not the best bullish flag, but the scenario is still bullish. Higher chances that it will break up. The levels mentioned above are keys.

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A new hourly and 2-hour candle will open in 20 minutes. If it stays above $3515-3520 then we are clear for the next leg up. If in the next 20 minutes it falls again, it will be a bad rejection.

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The bull flag failed since BTC found plenty of resistance at $3570. As we can see below, this is where the 20-sma is located on the daily so it's a pretty stiff resistance, which has not been tested since November 12th (has not been tested at all during this fall).

If BTC manages to break through this resistance then the bullish scenario becomes strong for the next weeks. As we can see here, there is a bullish pennant that is forming and might help BTC break through the 20-sma on the daily. Looking good so far as long as it doesn't fall under $3400.

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The move up needs to happen by tomorrow, if this pennant takes more than tomorrow then it could fail. However, we can see from the screenshot above that volume is increasing slowly, which is a good sign (the green spikes can be ignored as those are squeezes), but so far volume is confirming this rally. This reinforces my belief that we are in the wave A of the recovery rally. For more information about the wave count, please refer to this post:

Wave analysis for BTC. Correction due soon.

Be mindful that recovery will not happen in the matter of days, it will take probably weeks if not a month or so. At the moment there is nothing that makes me think that we will fall from these levels back down and create a lower low. I believe that we need to test $4000 or more before beginning trend-following corrective wave B. I'm seeing a lot of people claiming that this is nothing but a sucker's rally that will last 3 days max. Don't let them fool you. While yes, we are still in a bear market, but BTC rejected a break below support $3175 (200-ma on the weekly chart), this is why we are poised to see strong buying pressure for the next week or two (depends until wave B begins).

Anyways, if you have any question just leave a comment, otherwise please like and follow. My ideas will always be free.

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Price broke through the resistance as expected. Should keep going since this is still wave A. I will post more tomorrow, for now I will just sit back and enjoy the profit! Made good returns especially on altcoins, check out my TRX call on my profile.

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Time for a pause and consolidation. I think BTC should test and hopefully stay above $3700, $3650 max for the scenario to stay very bullish.

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Like I said this morning, $3650 absolutely needs to be defended by the bulls. So far it worked, but chances are it will be tested again. If this correction ends above $3650 then $4400 should be very likely (not right away, mind you). This drop is happening on a volume that is lower than that of these past few days, which is a good sign. This is good for things to cool off a bit and prepare things for the next rally.

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Shorts on finex are going up again. Almost 39k. I guess some people really are underestimating this rally. Yes, it could appear as a dead cat bounce to some, like that rally from $3500 to $4440, however this rally came after a break of support below a 200-ma on the weekly chart that has withstood for years. We will see prices above $4000. I’m very confident about this.

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Honestly, I’m not impressed. I said it in the last update when BTC was $3700. We will see 4K prices. Here it is! I hope you are all happy and I hope you followed my trade advice!

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Find more updates here:

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Looks like there is a possible bull flag in the making that if successfull projects price to $4300.

Bulls seem unstoppable. Honestly when I posted this trade I thought price would take at least 10 days to reach $4400. While the price action did not impress me, the speed of this rally has been impressive really. The speed is making it extremely hard to predict.

Make sure to check out my wave analysis prediction since I posted an indicator of where BTC prices is headed next month.

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By looking at it better, it is possible that if the bull flag is successful, it could dump soon after. I think I will just let it play out and see what happens.

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As I mentioned in my previous update earlier today, bull flag broke up but was met with stiff resistance and it indeed dump right away. This is shaping to be a bart move.

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Today was a good day to sit back and watch since there was a lot of manipulation going on which makes all TA useless. I still think this is a bart move and should drop to $3750 or around there.

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By the way if you were wondering why the SEC doesn’t approve ETFs today is the perfect reason. Too much manipulation. I’m all up for the price to go up, but not like this. It’s in the best interest of bulls for a healthy correction and profit taking. So what’s going on? Today all these moves were pumps and dumps to shakeout inexperience traders. It’s not this what makes healthy consolidation nor what will start the next bull run. Whales are taking advantage of the low volume to shake people out. Days like these it’s better to take a step back and let it play out.

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So it appears that BTC is forming a bear flag but also a right shoulder for a potential Head and Shoulder. I think we should drop further to test $3700 and then reprise the rally. I don't see much volume on this drop so far, which is good, it means that the rally is not over yet, just consolidating. I think the head and shoulder pattern is not really in play and the next drop might form a potential inverse head and shoulder.