In Aug-18, I wrote:
"Just to reiterate my current view on Bitcoin, right now $5,800 is the level to watch. If it can't hold this level and sustain a run from there (volume will be key to monitor), in all likelihood, Bitcoin will test ~3K."
Here we are as anticipated.
The reason for this decline should be evident for those who have stayed objective. Congrats if you either shorted or stayed away from buying any crypto-assets in 2018.
It's extremely important to note all the "Ideas" on Trading View that have been telling you to buy crypto-assets in 2018 (the ones with the super fancy charts that left out the story, remember those so you can protect yourself). Too many religious ideas here, not enough analysis.
Unfortunately for the bulls, the next leg lower is ~$3,000. This is a key technical level where BTC first started to breakout from in 2017. If this level can't hold, the probability of BTC falling below $1,000 is very high. Seems insane only to those who haven't been paying attention. As of now, there are no fundamental or technical reasons to suggest BTC should go higher (like many predicted over the past couple months). On the contrary, there are so many fundamental and technical reasons to suggest BTC will continue to go lower (like I first predicted in Dec-17).
Remember, no one has any idea where BTC is headed, I'm just sharing with you what the data/research and trend suggests. I will change my tune when the tide changes (never marry any idea).
My advice is to stay away or short BTC/Alts until the SEC/FED provides some meaningful positive commentary/regulations (they are in control). Until then, this space is dead money.
Tomorrow I get to sit down with Galaxy Digital. I'll provide any meaningful takeaway if one emerges.
Stay objective my friends. Remember, we are in 1994. Don't rush in here thinking the worst is over. People are 'still' far too optimistic at this point, blood hasn't spilled (but we are getting there).
Cheers!