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BTC: still bullish and here's why

업데이트됨

1) the last three rejections with less and less volume
2) higher lows on daily macd
3) big hidden bullish div CMF

on the other side bullish structure will be very compromised if 6.1k gets broken and that's where I'd close my long.
While a new cycle can be well confirmed once 11.7k resistance is broken with a close above it on higher timeframes (weekly/monthly).
on log chart break out to the upside of this descending triangle will be confirmed with a daily close above $6850

노트

액티브 트레이드

still early to say but if we keep seeing higher lows and a first clean higher high within a couple of weeks or so there are good probabilities that BTC could have actually bottomed out.

노트

....

노트

most ppl thought 6k would have held again but it didn't actually because 6.1k broken meant lower low, simple as that.

but what is the crowd thinking right now? it will probably think to short $5900-6000.
could be a good point to short but with a tight stop loss just above 6k.
we may not even test that, but typically when a descending triangle is broken down, its previous support gets tested as resistance.

this drop could have also been a bear trap (I'm not so confident about that simply because we had pretty high volumes on breakdown, in June we didn't see this when it broke 6k and hit $5750) but if so BTC will have to go above the 6.8k horizontal resistance and daily ma 200 which are converging right now and that would be a good confirmation.
while if this is not the case then I'll look for 1.9k or 1.3k as possible bottom targets.
3-4k is where almost everyone thinks the bottom could be.

노트

I just noticed that we had a descending triangle on 4h chart where the previous support turned into resistance got broken but it was just a small bull trap.
I'll personally relong when/if we break 6k not before and with tight stop loss just below $5900

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currently btc could have actually formed a compound fulcrum bottom with a final bear trap.
However I wouldn't give so much credit to it as we can see something different such as volume, and RSI but thats something to keep in mind. A break below 5.4k will most likely invalidate this pretty similar structure.

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based on descending triangle most people are calling for 2.8/3k as we also heard about 4k when BTC was traded inside the old one.
without any doubt 5.8k is a good short since it will act as strong resistance but we could also see a wick just a little bit above 6k to trap (as long as it's below $6250)
that said I'm neutral right now even if I personally think it's a good buy here with tight stop loss though.
above the monthly consolidation area ($6250-6850) is where I'll be pretty bullish and more confident to open a long position.

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pbs.twimg.com/media/Dg0IyloUEAArKjT.jpg

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we may see something like that (a kind of inverse bart)