Bulls have a chance to score a point here. They' d better do it.

업데이트됨

Possible speculative Long opportunity looming, medium to high risk contrarian trade.

Here's the scenario:

Sparse falling wedge. Pullback ongoing, after some breakout attempt on low volume. Pattern still unconfimed, be vigilant.
Slowing momentum, close to neutral, as witnessed by RSI, MACD and Bollinger bands.
30.000-31.000$ area boosting triple support: lower BB, Weekly MA50, support trendline.
Persisting bullish divergence
Wedge ongoing on RSI, close to congestion and hinting upcoming volatility within days ( within first 10-14 days of july ).
Hashrate seemingly bottoming. We'll have an umprecedented difficulty correction (-26%) within hours. This should ideally help ending current miners capitulation and hopefully close a pocket on hash ribbons and hopefully paint a Blue Dot within July.
Short term: 6H hinting a possible bounce within 12/24 hours:

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All in all i can see some speculative bullish opportunity here, at breakout (either on price chart or RSI) or as close to support as possible (hence reducing the % of loss).
A contrarian Long here does not go without risks.

Opportunity would be invalidated by loss of the critical support area on weekly close.

Hence do your own diligence and manage YOUR risk.
Have a SL.

코멘트

Needs to confirm breakout and achieve parabolic SAR reversal as a first step.

코멘트

We just had the biggest negative difficulty adjustment in Bitcoin history, -28%.
Eyes on hashrate now, let's bottom out and close this big pocket:

코멘트

(ONLY For those asking me for intraday scenario)
Top of channel and resistance:

코멘트

Short term TF quite stretched already.
It should try to flip 6H Parabolic SAR.

We' ll see.

코멘트

It's stretched, see the rising wedge.

Volume or pullback.
In case of a retracement bulls should *try* to keep price above the 34.000$ area.
It would be good for some hypothetical second leg up.

Anyway, soon to say.
Protect your position.

코멘트

(and ONLY for intraday folks)
Resistance surfin' ... Watch it.

코멘트

Minor breakout attempt ongoing, not much volume for now:

Is this the big move we were waiting for ? Not yet.

Still within the wedge on RSI:

That's the breakout we need to watch now.
Either way.

코멘트

Test ongoing.

코멘트

Overall picture is unchanged.

Still sideways and awaiting a signal from RSI.

We have an ascending triangle candidate, worth watching it as well.

Overall support area rising.
MA50/W support moved up over 31.400$.
Lower BB rose as Bollinger Bands are shrinking.
That's hinting price congestion before a strong move.

코멘트

Bulls should find a breakout of resistance soon, or regret it.

4th touch of resistance.

코멘트

Meanwhile on TF 1D BB are shrinking and start intersecting Keltner channel. It means price is close to congestion, so look out for a squeeze at any time.

코멘트

By the way, it's a couple weeks i watch this:

Personally i hate diamonds as they're almost unpredictable with cumbersome breakout. So let's PRAY it's a (very sparse) diamond bottom and not a half staff ...

코멘트

Another rjection on RSI resistance ....

코멘트

Looks like a diamond formation indeed:

코멘트

Meanwhile, on a shorter TF ...

Testing minor resistance after testing support twice (6 tests already there).
Hopefully will break through.

Let's see.

코멘트

Finally, RSI/D nearing edge of pattern ...

코멘트

MACD hinting a crossover, while MA50/W will get an uptick on weekly close.

Watch it.

코멘트

CMF nearing April pre-slump high.

코멘트

Go, bulls.

코멘트

I'm sharing this private analysis i drafted and shared with few friends 2 days ago, on the 33.000$ dip.

Tonight we got the RSI/D breakout i was waiting, which is hinting the hyphotesist above has some chance to happen. Will comment more.

코멘트

Here is the further test of MM50/W:

Possibly the crucial one.

코멘트

So far price action is adhering to the idea posted above after a fakeout.
here is current picture:

Bulls need MA50/W to hold once again.
Even more important they need VOLUME.

Weekly close will give further insight.

코멘트

Putting it simply: bulls need a higher low on volume, confirmed on weekly close.
Let's see.

코멘트

Support tested and rejected again:

Let's move, this is getting old.

코멘트

Still there.

Plenty of wedges.

Time is tight, bulls need to bounce and recover above MA50/W on weekly close tomorrow. Close mattters, spikes don't.

코멘트

A third low is needed. Possibily a higher low.

코멘트

Let me further put this into perspective.
There are historical reasons we DON'T want to see a weekly and monthly close below the 31.700$ mark.

I wrote already about MA50/W, but we ahould also consider the qhole super-cycle FIB 1.618 factor: