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Could Bitcoin crash to $13k now?

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Unfortunately my original theory from the past months might be in play. The VIX has a massive breakout same as in March 2020. I don’t want to scare myself out of buying the dip, but I don’t know right now what can give me confidence. I will update if I find something.

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Note that the last dip in Q4 2012 for the first move up was shallow unlike its fractal equivalent in March 2020 which was deepest correction before the move from to 69k. Thus although the dip in Sep/Oct 2013 was shallowest before the second move up to to final peak in 2013, we should expect this corresponding dip now to be the deepest correction. As I have been saying that if this 69k was top of wave 3, then wave 4 must decline below the top of wave 1 (13.9k) because wave 2 retraced more than 61.8% of wave 1. Thus this could be wave 4 and the last dip before the massive bull run from to 200k.

I think we could be in a March 2020 style flash crash now with the VIX exploding to the upside. If so you would want to be in cash and prepared to buy back in at 14k.

Bitcoin’s Entire Fractal Cycle History Decoded! Wow!

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Wow the market structure is revealing itself and it appears maybe my longstanding point about wave 4 needs to decline below 1 because wave 2 retraced more than 61.8% of wave (aka a terminal impulse condition) could mean that Bitcoin will flash crash now to 14k. The VIX is exploding with a breakout. This could be the March 2020 repeat I have been expecting on my Tradingview. It came sooner than I expected. But we would get a massive rally from 14k to 200k if so. Anyway this crash could liquidate the open leveraged trades of the moonboys.

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Break out on the VIX sooner than I expected. Rollercoaster to downside and upside starting now.

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“MA400 daily hit exactly it bounce like when BTC drop to 30k. If 40k break also then we will enter bear in weekly.”

Ditto in Dec. 2019, but it did not stop the crash to in March 2020. I think that crash might be repeating as the VIX is signaling:

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If this is a valid idea, then the posited projected bottom would be on Dec. 22.

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Michael Saylor and other moonboys to get REKT now?

“MMCrypto I DON‘T SEE #BITCOIN GO BELOW $29‘000 AGAIN. EVER.”

IMF would have to recognize BTC as a currency if El Salvador does not reject it. Time to REKT El Salvador?

“Nayib Bukele 🇸🇻 El Salvador just bought the dip! 🇸🇻 150 coins at an average USD price of ~$48,670 🥳 #Bitcoin🎄”

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Is contagion between the VIX and BVOL24H (Bitcoin volatility) corresponding to March or September 2020? The other dates don’t have this contagion as you can see below.

The correction may be complete if the correspondence is September 2020. Otherwise my dire scenario in this idea seems to be in play.

The red colored 400DMA hints that it’s corresponding to March 8, 2020. Another such hint is the breakout on both the VIX and BVOL24H which was not the case on September 3, 2020. More hints include it looks like a M pattern double-top, the posited yellow annotated wedges on the BTC chart and the prior difference I noted between 2013 and 2019 pointed a deep correction before the second major moonshot peak of this bull cycle — believe it or not if price crashes to will still be in a bull market because wave 5 has not started until after this wave 4 bottoms. As long as wave 4 does not bottom below the bottom of wave 2 (3.9k) then the Elliot Wave terminal impulse bull market is still going. Refer back to my prior ideas for the rules I cited on Elliot Wave theory that many people do not know.

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Will the Nasdaq (aka US100) and S&P 500 (aka US500) be limited in downside to the top of the channels they broke up out of as Game of Trades posits?

Zoomed in on daily:

Linear-scaled chart:

BTC with 285 WMA:

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If Nasdaq backtests 12.9k breakout of channel and S&P500 also backtests $4300 breakout its channel, the US100/US200 would plummet to 3.0 — which might be sufficient to cause Bitcoin to crash more egregiously. Some have noted the US100/US300 appears similar to Bitcoin’s chart, except Bitcoin had the more egregious March 2020 crash. So any crash on the US100/US 200 would mean an excessive crash on Bitcoin. The Nasdaq (US100) is more overbought and in a less enviable position than it was with the onslaught of the shift the remote work and lockdowns in 2020.

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“In April 2013, Bitcoin became a victim of its own success as investors piled on to the exciting new opportunity that was buzzing in the mainstream media. Trading was so intense that Mt. ... It forced Mt. Gox into an unprecedented total shutdown, sending prices from nearly $260 to $50.”

If Bitcoin crashes by the same percentage from 69k, that would be a correction to ~13.3k. Again positing that the 2013 pattern is repeating with the difference between 2012 and 2019 taken into consideration as previously mentioned.

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Another BTC chart:

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I responded on Game of Trades most recent video:

youtube.com/watch?v=PRcpVx9WIhY&lc=UgwHZU3o7rHZB0OZ0dl4AaABAg.9VVeF1GtBV_9VYPYXhTdsa

“@ShelbyMoore I cant fault your logic. Bitboy says sell if it drops below 40k. Thats his line in the sand based on yesterdays chart comparison with 2013 and 2017. That said eth has broke the down trend on the daily chart and btc has bounced off 40k key level. This leads me to tihnk the worst may be over despite prevalance of much leverage.”

@JackHenriques I’m shelby3 have two scenarios published on my trading view, this crash either correlates to March 8, 2020 or September 3, 2020. If break below 40k, then it’s the former. We’ll know by next week.

There’s an issue with the Elliot Wave counts on Ethereum which leads me to believe that this must be correlated to September 3, 2020, because otherwise it appears Ethereum needs to be drop below $400, which makes no sense to me. Still searching for other interpretations in the chart patterns.

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View the weekly chart including 2020 at the ~12:45 time mark on Alessio Rastani’s latest video.

Note how much more similar this current situation is to March 8, 2020 than to September 3, 2020.

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My comment on latest Steven van Metre video It's Game Over Fed, You Lose! And I'll Prove It.:

Fed tapering acceleration is a shock to risk assets. Fed is trying to accelerate to raise short-term interest rates so that term yield spread does not cause another recession. In attempting to do so the Fed is likely to create a contagion that forces them to backtrack.

In short the Fed is trapped but immediate term they are trying to untrap themselves and this could cause market gyrations.

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Here’s an alternative interpretation of the Ethereum Elliot Wave counts, but as I aforementioned it’s crazy.

My prior Ethereum Elliot Wave counts interpretation for comparison:

Ethereum’s Entire History (and entire Future)

ETHBTC is breaking out to the upside, but do observe what it did in 2017:

We’d need a re-interpretation of the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart as well:

And a re-interpretation of the Bitcoin Fibonacci Ellipses which makes more sense actually than the prior attempts:

Here were the prior Bitcoin Fibonacci Ellipses interpretations:

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In this scenario the Bitcoin Fibonacci Ellipses would need to look more like this to respect timing and that Elliot wave 5 much be shorter than wave 3.

Try to integrate that into the posited fractal structure of Bitcoin:

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On the bounce to 50k which is backtesting the wedge it fell out of, I am overall long on hodl BTC, but I am betting short with my trading position.

To hedge my bets, because my strong leaning is that Bitcoin is going to break 40k to downside or at least revisit that low.

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Cardanao (ADA) chart reinterpreted makes a lot more sense in this scenario.

And fits my extant ADABTC interpretation:

Here’s the prior ADA interpretation which I had remarked seemed unbelievable:

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Total crypto market cap may crash back down to ~400B at the bottom Benjamin Cowen’s regression fit channel.

Would be drop to 60% below his regression fit curve.

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The pattern is very similar to March 2020 and there should be a bounce to $51 – 52k this week before the next leg down:

A significant difference being the Nasdaq has much further (percentage wise) to fall to top the channel it broke out of than the S&P500, as compared to 2020 when the Nasdaq fell less than the S&P500 from this juncture! This indicates the Bitcoin crash will be worse than 2020.

I will increase my short positions from $51 – 52k, while the moonboys TheMoon and MMCrypto open new long positions, lol. 🤣

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FreeMoneyCrypto, {12/5/21 9:42 AM}
{In reply to Shelby Moore}
so most likely the standard -85% from cycle peak ?

Shelby Moore, {12/5/21 9:44 AM}
{In reply to FreeMoneyCrypto}
Was -81% in 2013 for the first peak before proceeding to the second peak of that bull cycle.

Hey nothing is guaranteed. This is just my interpretation.

FreeMoneyCrypto, {12/5/21 9:45 AM}
im leaning towards having lesser corrections. but i will prepare for -80%+

Shelby Moore, {12/5/21 9:47 AM}
{In reply to FreeMoneyCrypto}
I doubt greater -80%. I would buy some ~20k, then add more ~, if we get that far.

We can keep an eye on the S&P500 and Nasdaq as they approach their posited bottom prices.

If the price drops to , it is likely to be a wick so you will need to have limit orders set down there to catch it.

Actually the wick is likely to be from 24.5k down. So anything below that may be difficult to buy unless you have your limit orders already set.

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Responding to MMCrypto’s latest video.

imgur.com/a/TVTmEH3

Monthly chart says that if December doesn’t turn into a green candle then headed down to below 25k. Wycoff pattern and wedge breakdown target 29k.

Commented:

“I’m shelby3. After bouncing this week to $51 – 52k. Price will drop to 24.5k with a wick down to 14k. The is all explained in detail on my published trading view.

At 6:00 Chris mentions March 2020. He should go chart the VIX so he can see the breakout in progress.

Wycoff pattern and wedge breakdown target 29k.

This will not be the end of the bull market. It was a necessary for wave 4 to drop below the top of wave 1, because wave 2 retraced more than 61.8% of wave 1 back in March 2020 forming a terminal impulse Elliot Wave situation. Bitcoin will then proceed to rally 150+k.”

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imgur.com/a/TVTmEH3

Monthly chart says that if December doesn’t turn into a green candle then headed down to below 25k. Wycoff pattern and wedge breakdown target 29k.

Commented:

“I’m shelby3. After bouncing this week to $51 – 52k. Price will drop to 24.5k with a wick down to 14k. The is all explained in detail on my published trading view.

At 6:00 Chris mentions March 2020. He should go chart the VIX so he can see the breakout in progress.

This will not be the end of the bull market. It was a necessary for wave 4 to drop below the top of wave 1, because wave 2 retraced more than 61.8% of wave 1 back in March 2020 forming a terminal impulse Elliot Wave situation. Bitcoin will then proceed to rally 150+k.”

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Responding to Benjamin Cowan’s video Market Cycle Outlook for Bitcoin (A discussion with TechDev)

Don’t say there was no consolidation in 2013 right before the rocket to the second peak. There was a significant spike down first, and that spike down could be much egregious this time… Or it’s possible the spike down to 40k was the full extent of the consolidation and we’re ready to go higher. One fly in the ointment is the VIX is on a major breakout and the last time it did this in March 2020, we know what happened. Also the Fed is hinting it will officially announce Dec. 14 – 16 an acceleration of QE tapering. Whereas in 2013 the flash crash was caused by a problem with Mt. Gox which was repairable.

His 2.272 target and his intersection timing to get there, indicates that the price might need to drop lower and bide its time for months before the next parabolic move up.

Also the rise from the low in 2012 was less than in 2019, and the crash down was also less. Volatility is increasing probably because the QE money supply expansion is going crazy.

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Game of Trades notes a bullish divergence on the S&P500 on the 8 hour time frame.

But these (on the 4 hour and daily time frames) didn’t help us pick the exact bottom price in March 2020 although they did tells us that the bottom would be bullish one.

No bullish divergences yet for Nasdaq and Bitcoin. Nasdaq had bullish divergences in March 2020, but Bitcoin didn’t.

So we very likely have bounce incoming, but it’s probably not the final bottom.

However having looked TechDev’s point in the prior video, I’m questioning whether the crash will be below 29k.

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yardeni.com/chronology-of-feds-quantitative-easing/

Prior two times that Fed initiating tightening this caused Bitcoin’s bull market cycle to end. Bitcoin peaked on Nov. 10, so it may be happening again?

Do note that Bitcoin peaked Nov 30 – Dec 4, 2013, and Dec. 17, 2017 (and altcoins peaked in early Jan 2018). So the duration after the start of QE tightening is increasing.

So delay went from -2 to 7 – 9 weeks, thus could the delay this time be 2 – 4 months? Thus the peak to come in Jan to March?

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bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD

Percentage drop in 2013 right before the rocket to second peak was -37% and this time so far it’s -39.7%. Not including the 1 – 2 min wick down portion, this time so far it’s -37%.

This is a strong argument for going long right now without delay.

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All the stock markets had to do was rally back to the top of their channel and Bitcoin was able to skyrocket off that -37% pullback.

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All the stock markets had to do was rally back to the top of their channel and Bitcoin was able to skyrocket off that -37% pullback.

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Although these two charts seem to have a similar pattern, they actually occurred under very different circumstances and have different patterns.

In 2019 the Fed had backtracked from QE normalization (after ending QE entirely in 2014) because the repo markets were blowing up because of the European banks risk. The economy was weak. The Fed backtracked on QE normalization throughout 2019.

Whereas in end of 2021 the Fed is starting to taper and still injecting billions of QE ongoing in the meantime and the economy is rebounding strongly.

In 2019 the chart was attempting but failing to retake the July 2019 peak twice collapsing back down to the downtrend line into the March 2020 abyss.

There’s a Wycoff distribution pattern for both tops with a higher high on the second and a Wycoff accumulation after the first peak. One can argue the second Wycoff distribution has already completed at 41.6k (MMCrypto’s point).

The Fed’s restart of a small amount of sustaining QE in Oct 2019, enabled the S&P500 and Nasdaq to break out of a range and then belatedly Bitcoin followed up in late January and early February, and then the collapse into March 2020 because the powers-that-be employed the p(L)andemic to force the Fed back into massive QE in 2020 – 2021.

We’re not in that situation yet. The Fed is starting to taper and that will eventually cause the economy to become weak (especially as the Fed completes the taper by March 2022) and then the powers-that-be will need another scapegoat to blame a fabricated collapse on, probably war.

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However the T/A situation is quite different from 2013 at least with this wedge interpretation of the current pattern. There’s a shitload of overhead resistance from the $50 – 57k zone, that wasn’t an issue in 2013.

bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD

I need to sleep on this.

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Apparently this egregious crash was caused by manipulation.

Shorts were piled on and then the leveraged longs were destroyed by dumping BTC at a loss while profiting on the massive short positions. They probably had advance knowledge that the Fed would articulate strongly taper acceleration, along with knowledge that FUD about the Omnicron variant would flood the MSM.

Problem is that they have not closed their shorts yet.

Looks like it might be another May 14 scenario!

They were less accurate and successful in March 2020.

Could this be explained by March 2020 being a broad market contagion which they were not entirely in control of? And are they entirely in control now of Bitcoin exchange manipulation and note there is limited actual contagion in the S&P500 and Nasdaq so far.

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“@ShelbyMoore qe 3 was stopped at the end of 2014 and led to a really tough time in the stock market in 2015. The qe is MUCH larger this time around and has fueled insane stock valuations and inflation that will make it much more difficult for the fed to backtrack. Those record stock valuations will get unwound now. Expect huge corrections in all risk assets (stock and crypto).”

@JasonAbbott if unwound now it won’t be due to tapering, because it will proceed precipitously before the tapering can even be accelerated. And then the Fed will have to cancel the tapering so we are right back to bullish again with even more insane valuations and more insane inflation in 2022. It appears to be a repeat of the March 2020 flash crash underway. I have been publicly predicting a drop to for Bitcoin since October.

Game of Trades may end up correct that the renewed pandemic variants are bullish for the markets, but not until after an extreme flash crash that presumably forces the Fed back to QE to infinity. He may be underestimating the potential extent of this breakout on the VIX, but I am not a subscriber.

@JasonAbbott after more study I am nearly certain you’re wrong and the markets will continue to rally for a few more months. The Fed announced initiation of taper on Dec. 18, 2013, but the markets rallied until May 2015! Although Bitcoin peaked Dec. 1, 2013, the next time around in 2017, it peaked Dec. 17 but the Fed had announced the start of balance sheet normalization on Nov. 1.

“@ShelbyMoore the fed backtracked and started a 3rd round of bond purchases through 2015. This time around it’s unlikely the fed will backtrack due to high inflation”

@JasonAbbott Thank you. The “Chronology of Fed’s Quantitative Easing & Tightening” by Yardeni Research doesn’t mention that. Can you refer me to a more accurate chronology of Fed actions over this decade?

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“@ShelbyMoore not sure, I just remember dealing with it back then. Maybe lookup taper tantrum 2013 for that particular instance.

Important to note, in 2013 rates spiked way up when the fed announced taper, but this time rates are dropping. The bond market is telling us that deflation and an economic slowdown is coming. QE has been much larger this time around and we’ve stolen years and years of growth/stock market gains in the last 1.5+ years. We’re likely going to see a 15-20% decline in the indexes before the fed will start easing again and send us higher.

@ShelbyMoore the most speculative assets (bitcoin and high growth stocks) have already topped and institutions are using retail dip buyers to liquidate their positions. History doesn’t repeat in the stock market but it does rhyme. Be very careful.”

@JasonAbbott possibly so. Bitcoin did peak before the taper started in 2013, and we were expected a double peak scenario mimicking 2013. Maybe 69k was the double-peak! So maybe really going down to as my one T/A model suggests.

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imgur.com/a/46HP4iW

Someone has published a video mimicking my long-standing thesis of a repeat of the 2019-2020 crash with a target of or below now, instead of first heading to a second higher (~190k) peak.

I commented:

I have been publicly expecting this for past several months. But I am not 100% sure. There are also patterns pointing to 2013 second massive pump from this pullback.

@OPTICALARTdotCOM I noticed that 2019 – 2020 pattern in May/June. Enabled me to bet long from 29K for a rally. But I’m not 100% sure this is going to play out as you think. There are other patterns in play as well, such as TechDev’s 1.414 log-scaled Fib retracement being hit both in 2013 before the massive pump to the second peak and again now. Also MMCrypto identified a pattern from March 2020 that is repeating which points to a V recovery to $60+k in December. We have a breakout on the VIX but it pulled back already. Without March 2020 contagion your scenario will not play out. We will eventually get 14K because of the terminal impulse Elliot Wave in March 2020 requires wave 4 to come below 14K, but it might come after a final pump to ~190k. The next week will tell us which scenario.

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Frankly this is scary.

Price should bounce to back above 52k. Probably should take profits there and wait for $56 – 57k before reentering long, just in case the crash scenario plays out.

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@ShelbyMoore I don't think we're going below 40k ever again. Neither do many analysts

@JamesButtery we must go below 14k eventually because the wave 2 into the March 2020 crash retraced more than 61.8% of wave 1 into July 14k peak. This is a terminal impulse Elliot Wave which requires that wave 4 dip below the top of wave 1. This is an invariant. So either below 14k now or to 190k then drop below 14k. If you want to know the reason it can drop from 190k to 14k (if does not do it now) that would be the ANYONECANSPEND attack where the legacy miners donate all the SeqWit UTXO to themselves. There is a game theory about this that nearly nobody understands properly. I am in the process of writing a blog about this for Michael Saylor to read.

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It’s impossible to imagine Bitcoin dropping to if there’s no contagion in the stock markets. Yet the S&P500 is poised to breakout to a new ATH although it could come back to fill the gap. But watch the entire video because there’s a lot of (especially tech) stocks will in a weaker situation more akin to Bitcoin.

imgur.com/a/9VOlAuK

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S&P500 earnings growth suggests it’s going higher but it could correct lower first.

imgur.com/a/yWTuah0

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typo/there’s a lot of (especially tech) stocks will in a weaker situation/there’s a lot of (especially tech) stocks *STILL* in a weaker situation/

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imgur.com/a/8G1HU2A

Bond yields and BTC correlation. So if tapering causing yields to rise then BTC explodes upwards again? Seemed yields were falling (risk off move) because everyone thought the Fed taper and lack of China bailouts would cause an imminent contagion and crash? Fed was forced to stop the QE normalization with the March 2020 plandemic contagion. Remember I think the plandemic is on purpose to force the central banks to destroy the USD monetary system to usher in the Bitcoin 666 system. GoT’s stance is that economy is strong and risk-off is a miscalculation at least until QE taper has more time to accelerate.

10YR yield is about to break up or down.

Long-term / short-term BTC hodlers ratio is implicating a MASSIVE pump imminent. It started to decline as it should as price pumps but got interrupted by this pullback but no where near lows! Very similar to both pullback 2013 and Sept 2020! Doesn’t mean the price can‘t go lower first but MMCrypto Dec must be green candle.

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Sub-14k probably comes after 100+k. Look at the Elliot Wave structure. The wave 2 retraced more than 61.8 of wave 1 into the March 2020 flash crash. Thus wave 4 will retrace below the top of wave 1 as this is a terminal impulse condition. And wave 4 must be short in duration so this will be a flash crash. Many will be rektd. Probably will fill that long-standing 9.8k CME gap. This will be caused perhaps by the bankruptcy of Tether and/or a specific attack that is known to destroy the 2017 softfork of Bitcoin.

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imgur.com/a/JRN0uqE

My comment:

Sub-14k probably comes after 100+k. Look at the Elliot Wave structure. The wave 2 retraced more than 61.8 of wave 1 into the March 2020 flash crash. Thus wave 4 will retrace below the top of wave 1 as this is a terminal impulse condition. And wave 4 must be short in duration so this will be a flash crash. Many will be rektd. Probably will fill that long-standing 9.8k CME gap. This will be caused perhaps by the bankruptcy of Tether and/or a specific attack that is known to destroy the 2017 softfork of Bitcoin.

Also 2.39 times 39k (i.e. 39k + 1.39 times 39k) equals 93k not 108k. He was looking at the wrong number on the screen.

Fib circles (ellipses) are indicating a 190k top for major wave 4, then flash crash to 9k then a flash V rebound to 300k. 2022 is going be crazy year.

Same 185k to 200k level can be obtained with TechDev's 2.272 log-scaled Fib extensions from peaks to bottoms. This and the Fib ellipses predicted both of these recent two tops perfectly including the timing. And thus 190k by April 11 like clockwork.

shelby3