BTC bullish until Oct 2021 and bearish until Oct 2022?

2021년 1월 4일

In my biased view BTC might be somewhat bullish until the autumn of 2021 and than maybe somewhat bearish until the autumn of 2022. That will be the moment when I might consider to entry the game.

My lazy prediction is based on Volume Weighed Moving ALMA with some smooting (white line) and some past data (using bayesian ARIMA approach, but with quite low credible interval), also I calculate ALMA to current price ratio in ln, which might be fully misleading due to few data points, yet it looks like a good analysis, but it is not. So, I might be totally wrong here, but at least I do not have to worry until 2022 autumn.

Share your thoughts!
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This is NOT a trading advise! (Calculate risk, use stops, avoid FOMO, don't risk more than you can afford to lose, take responsibility.)

2021년 1월 11일

노트

Pricewise: 4 year lows might follow 2,04218872661052 * (x on 6.54415428268381) +-15% function? This might mean that 2021/2022 lowest might be lower than 18k? When it is lower, I m8 start considering to get into the game, but also only if daily DEMA512 ratio to current price is less than -1...

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This is NOT a trading advise! (Calculate risk, use stops, avoid FOMO, don't risk more than you can afford to lose, take responsibility.)

2021년 1월 12일

노트

14,279 * e on 1,3357 dx is better approach, so it means: I am likely to wait until BTCUSD is less than 12k in 2021/2022 than consider to buy in.

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This is NOT a trading advise! (Calculate risk, use stops, avoid FOMO, don't risk more than you can afford to lose.)

2021년 1월 13일

노트

2021년 3월 16일

노트

little update: using natural exp. function + standard deviation + qx decomposition shows, that it might be that 2021 mayish-junish is the end of the bulls. But maybe not.



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This is NOT a trading advise! (Calculate risk, use stops, avoid FOMO, don't risk more than you can afford to lose.)