Hello traders. I have long talked about exactly this price level right here that we have finally reached. I was the first ones to tell you EARLY on this week to NOT short this whatsoever, you will get wrecked. I called both 11k and 11300-11400 being imminent at the start of the week... Well today we are here folks.
Now...... Here is the problem. Let me tell you why things became so bullish, but price should drop like a ROCK from here. I'm talking heavy handed sizable drop down.
So traders, the bad news is we are right in the middle of the breakdown of a large distribution cycle in which we have done a CLASSIC price snapback right before the big drop. The reason I went with 11400 being the price was because of the ascending main channel trend lines shown below. The snapshot I'm putting in here is the large view of the fully completed distribution breakdown cycle.
So am I saying we can't go up somewhat further here? No... Some snapback patters can reach the middle of the main channel the breakdown happened from. Which implies the possibility of 12k or so. But the reason I am short right here is simply because we have hit the major resistance of the bottom channel trend line in the snapshot. This is a good/smart spot for a short as you're gonna get...
Now let's study the main chart. There are two conflicting Wyckoff charts in play currently. One is bullish on is bearish. The most recent pattern is bearish, but the bigger overall is bullish. We are BOTH in UTAD on a bearish distribution or an SOS on a bullish accumulation schematic.
Once again, I am currently short right here. Frankly my game plan is to ride this down to probably 7k... I fully believe we are headed back into that area again.
Now...... Here is the problem. Let me tell you why things became so bullish, but price should drop like a ROCK from here. I'm talking heavy handed sizable drop down.
So traders, the bad news is we are right in the middle of the breakdown of a large distribution cycle in which we have done a CLASSIC price snapback right before the big drop. The reason I went with 11400 being the price was because of the ascending main channel trend lines shown below. The snapshot I'm putting in here is the large view of the fully completed distribution breakdown cycle.
So am I saying we can't go up somewhat further here? No... Some snapback patters can reach the middle of the main channel the breakdown happened from. Which implies the possibility of 12k or so. But the reason I am short right here is simply because we have hit the major resistance of the bottom channel trend line in the snapshot. This is a good/smart spot for a short as you're gonna get...
Now let's study the main chart. There are two conflicting Wyckoff charts in play currently. One is bullish on is bearish. The most recent pattern is bearish, but the bigger overall is bullish. We are BOTH in UTAD on a bearish distribution or an SOS on a bullish accumulation schematic.
Once again, I am currently short right here. Frankly my game plan is to ride this down to probably 7k... I fully believe we are headed back into that area again.
코멘트:
Idea updated, looks like this consolidation range is going higher...