BTC Potential Wedge Formation

2021년 3월 17일

It looks like support held yesterday for bitcoin in the upward channel (dashed green lines). However, so long as the support holds in this channel, it looks as though a wedge could potentially form if the price heads back upwards from here (light blue dashed line). If that were to occur, the potentials could lead to a slight all-time-high, afterward another retrace (although it could also breakout) and then either break downward of the wedge back to around yesterday's price or lower to 50K (purple line), or it could head upward towards targets of 67K or up to 73K (green line). NOTE: These lines are not meant to be exact nor predictions so much as being there to indicate potential directions.

There however still is a possibility of a healthy dip to around 51K from here (breaking the bottom dashed green line) after which I think 43K is still the greatest concern to watch for BTC to be in a double-top situation, but until that green channel's support fails, I think it is good to consider this as a possibility more than a likelihood (hence falling below 53K looks to be a confirmation concerns toward any of these scenarios).

However, if the former wedge situation were to occur, I think the more important situation to watch will be RSI patterns for further bearish divergence, since if the wedge does not break upward out of the RSI wedge, there is a good possibility of BTC running out of momentum for at least some time. And if the latter situation occurs, then the red line support on RSI is additionally something to watch out for if it were to break below that point on RSI.

Curious what others might think as well if there, particularly with regard to the wedge forming on RSI.