Where exactly is the most probable bottom of BTC for this cycle?

2022년 5월 20일

This is the analysis based on the following data points

1. Monthly historical price action
2. Monthly Fibonacci Channel
3. Monthly Fibonacci Extension
4. EMA50 (Monthly)
5. RSI

We have been analyzing long term BTC price movements accurately since December 2021. Now that BTC is in sideway again, we are going to analyze the possible next moves. To be honest, current market is the hardest to analyze for us. There are mixed signals on the chart. We will try to provide as much information and perspectives as we can.

We will start with the Fibonacci extension which we have drawn based on monthly swing high/low. And zoomed in as a daily chart. Below you can see that the price bounced back exactly at 0.618 line of the fib extension. If you look at the Monthly chart above, it just touched monthly 50EMA line that day too. Coincidence? If we hit that golden pocket again and restart the bull run again, I won’t be surprised.



However, there is still a chance that we will go down further.
Let’s look at the monthly chart above for that assumption.

If we look at 2014/2015, 2017/2018, and 2019/2020 price actions, we are very near our maximum pain level. We are already in 6 months with -63% from the top. It also aligned with what we have suggested in our RSI based analysis here.

If we combine that two data points with the fib channel, we conclude that the area of fib channel golden pocket should be the bottom for this cycle. It will be -73% from the top. RSI monthly will also hit the bottom line.

One thing to note is that if we are going to break below that golden pocket, we will be looking at one of the worst bear market in the history.

Good luck.

7월 30일

거래청산: 타겟 닿음

Back in 2022, we shared this macro BTC analysis based on:

🔹 Monthly Fibonacci Channel & Extension
🔹 Monthly EMA50
🔹 Monthly RSI
🔹 Historical cycle symmetry (2014, 2018, 2020)

We identified a confluence zone (Fib 0.618 + EMA50 + channel support) as the "golden pocket" and likely bottom of the cycle. We marked the green box as our accumulation zone and suggested that if this holds, it could spark the next bull cycle.

✅ Executed and Validated
✅ Price dropped into the green box
✅ RSI bottomed on the monthly support line
✅ Bounce occurred exactly from the confluence zone

🎯 One of our best macro trades to date

🔄 Current Market Context

BTC has now rallied significantly from that zone We’re back in sideways chop near key channel resistance
But the structure remains bullish and I believe we are going to reach to the channel top probably in 2026.