BTC Consolidation Patterns

2021년 8월 27일

With resistance at 50k here, what would a prolonged sideways scenario look like?

Mapping out patterns from the 10k consolidation, 20k consolidation, and the 60k top.

Good signs: muted volatility, slow and steady rise makes it more like 10k/20k consolidations. In the more bullish case BTC gets through resistance in mid September, and the slower resistance has us getting through resistance in November.

Bad signs: High volatility makes it like the top-> would actually see a few punches through resistance that don't make it.

2021년 8월 27일

노트

In terms of probability, I think the 20k consolidation scenario is most probable. The reason is a BTC dominance run is necessary for new BTC all time highs. This is a quick run up - thru 50k resistance by mid September, trying to make a new ATH by October. It pairs well with my BTC dominance run idea using the 2017 fractal and says altseason ends right at mid-September.

Less likely scenarios:
1) A long low-volatility period at 50k. This would come with an absolutely epic altseason lasting into November.
2) Complacency shoulder and end of bull run. This would be a 2018 complacency bounce with high volatility that trails out when volume dries up, eventually leading to a total collapse of the market.