Hit Target Dead-On ... Consolidates | $BTC $USD #bitcoin #forex
Friends,
Following a protracted descent along the bearish momental line, this BTCUSD finally tip-toed on my technical target @ 438.97, when I defined the target at the bottom of commentary threat, stating on 18 APR 22014:
"Hence, 438.97 comes as a relevant support, a garrison line for bulls to prepare for a potential uphill move. And uphill that will be, if there ever was one".
- See chart and technical commentaries: "Hello Houston. Do You Copy?", tradingview.com/v/2z40pI45/
The title implied an optimistic bias at the time, considering the complex technical pictures and conditions described in the commentaries. So, it should come as no surprise if I defended that bullish bias at this point.
However, there are 2 cautionary scenarios worth putting on the table before any such bias can be confirmed (or infirmed).
First, so far, price has held itself at quite a distance ever since the forecast target was hit on a dime. This should keep the visual trader at ease, because the appearance of price action has left little doubt so far that this target zone was well defended, and may promise to remain so ... For the time being.
Here are two directional scenarios to which I would give equal weight during this period of consolidation:
1 - BEARISH SCENARIO: Here, look for price to remain its the 441.80/445.09 defensive/supportive range. In fact, a break below/close below event should concern bulls, whereas a structural break below the 438.97 should be construed as a valid bearish outlook.
2 - BULLISH SCENARIO: In the case of a continued bullish ascent, price would have to drill through several reinforced levels, and this only after it peeled itself off of the momental line that drove price to its forecast target. I have seen many technical discussions on the board, but few - if any - seem to be cognizant of the fact that hidden (occult) geometries remain in force herein, yet momental lines are not at all foreign to the powerful effect it can carry on price, as it was just proven. I could spend a significant amount of time ranting about patterns-as-carrots, but let's simply stay on the simple task at hand.
Now, once that momental influence is resolved, my prop system has defined 480.80 and 490.64 are like overhead resistance levels. Considering the current location of price at the time of this writing (price @ 457.44 at 0722am in Denver, Colorado), it would require a steep incline for the highest target to be hit, corresponding to the softer limit of the channel. And the channel is indeed the real impediment in this technical picture.
In fact, once price did hit the former target @ 541.00, this occurred incidentally along the momental lines of the channel. At the time, I used 438.97 as the lower support level for an eventual rallying back into the underbelly of that upper channel border, in a wave form (dashed blue arrows) that approximated the potential ensuing price action. Now that the supportive target at 438.97 got hit, I would prepare for a descending triangle to form, if and when price attempted a bullish assault against entrenched bears in the hills overhead, as this is indeed, as defined above and before, going to be an uphill battle, if there ever was an uphill march.
OVERALL:
The conditions that define a bullish "attentat" are many and dire. The period of consolidation allows institutional traders, market makers and other liquid providers to take positions. In such case, flings to the downside should be limited by volume surges, whereas testing of the bears are often represented by larger price moves despite little to no volume. Given the conditions above, and the current position of price relative to the recent support, more overhead space is left to move in favor of bulls, and inversely, a third less space is left for these same bulls to maintain a 2:1 upside risk ratio. So, not a bad place to hang if you are bullish.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
Following a protracted descent along the bearish momental line, this BTCUSD finally tip-toed on my technical target @ 438.97, when I defined the target at the bottom of commentary threat, stating on 18 APR 22014:
"Hence, 438.97 comes as a relevant support, a garrison line for bulls to prepare for a potential uphill move. And uphill that will be, if there ever was one".
- See chart and technical commentaries: "Hello Houston. Do You Copy?", tradingview.com/v/2z40pI45/
The title implied an optimistic bias at the time, considering the complex technical pictures and conditions described in the commentaries. So, it should come as no surprise if I defended that bullish bias at this point.
However, there are 2 cautionary scenarios worth putting on the table before any such bias can be confirmed (or infirmed).
First, so far, price has held itself at quite a distance ever since the forecast target was hit on a dime. This should keep the visual trader at ease, because the appearance of price action has left little doubt so far that this target zone was well defended, and may promise to remain so ... For the time being.
Here are two directional scenarios to which I would give equal weight during this period of consolidation:
1 - BEARISH SCENARIO: Here, look for price to remain its the 441.80/445.09 defensive/supportive range. In fact, a break below/close below event should concern bulls, whereas a structural break below the 438.97 should be construed as a valid bearish outlook.
2 - BULLISH SCENARIO: In the case of a continued bullish ascent, price would have to drill through several reinforced levels, and this only after it peeled itself off of the momental line that drove price to its forecast target. I have seen many technical discussions on the board, but few - if any - seem to be cognizant of the fact that hidden (occult) geometries remain in force herein, yet momental lines are not at all foreign to the powerful effect it can carry on price, as it was just proven. I could spend a significant amount of time ranting about patterns-as-carrots, but let's simply stay on the simple task at hand.
Now, once that momental influence is resolved, my prop system has defined 480.80 and 490.64 are like overhead resistance levels. Considering the current location of price at the time of this writing (price @ 457.44 at 0722am in Denver, Colorado), it would require a steep incline for the highest target to be hit, corresponding to the softer limit of the channel. And the channel is indeed the real impediment in this technical picture.
In fact, once price did hit the former target @ 541.00, this occurred incidentally along the momental lines of the channel. At the time, I used 438.97 as the lower support level for an eventual rallying back into the underbelly of that upper channel border, in a wave form (dashed blue arrows) that approximated the potential ensuing price action. Now that the supportive target at 438.97 got hit, I would prepare for a descending triangle to form, if and when price attempted a bullish assault against entrenched bears in the hills overhead, as this is indeed, as defined above and before, going to be an uphill battle, if there ever was an uphill march.
OVERALL:
The conditions that define a bullish "attentat" are many and dire. The period of consolidation allows institutional traders, market makers and other liquid providers to take positions. In such case, flings to the downside should be limited by volume surges, whereas testing of the bears are often represented by larger price moves despite little to no volume. Given the conditions above, and the current position of price relative to the recent support, more overhead space is left to move in favor of bulls, and inversely, a third less space is left for these same bulls to maintain a 2:1 upside risk ratio. So, not a bad place to hang if you are bullish.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
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