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Is this triangle a bear trap ? Is this double bottom real ?

업데이트됨

I think we might have confirmed the bottom as a double bottom
Divergence on macd since before the low,
Divergence on RSI, marking double bottom and divergence on smaller time frame since before the second low
Both of which show levels of a bouble bottom
Volume average has declined since first low
Chaikin money flow has become positive on H1 while making the second low

This triangle look like a bear trap

On btcusd:long from bitfinex, we can see that they have been removing themselves while short have been going up
And with weekly and monthly future closing this weekend that would make sens.

The risk on the other side is getting to lower 5600. To me their is more reward taking the chance of the long.

액티브 트레이드

okay now... trade active on m15 but let's be very careful with that SL and stop hunt.
I can still totally see the price going back the other way and bite us..

노트

This one totally overshoot my target !

We've just reached the confirmation point of the double bottom
a little pullback to the bottom of the peak is to be expected, but seeing that wave up it might be very shallow. And prevent a good re-entry.

I'd usually say 0.5, but i wouldn't be surprise if we don't even go below 0.236.

If we break that resistance before that,patience and re-entering on a move confirming it as support would be best.

if the dotted line breaks with a close below on H4 then this trade is to be cancel

노트

minute chart makes me think this was it -we could make a new high right now..

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And.... There !

If this is TRUE reversal, 6300 has to hold (and hold forever !)
Looking at 6800, 7300, 8400, 9200 for pullback.
Not sure how far and fast this will go, so spread those sell order arround those level for now.
And if you completely missed that move, i'll suggest to look into alts (tron, iota, partcl...) that lag a bit behind and might go up once BTC settle.
Catching the BTC move right now seems too risky in my opinion.

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Indicators on m30, H1 and H2 are way overbought, don't think we'll go anywhere else right this minute.

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target from previous chart got "touched", i think up from here. But it would have to be soon and sharp due to the indicators.
Above us :
fib extension 1.6 at 6600
fib 2.6 at 7000
and in between my target of 6800

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The next few hours will be very important.
RSI on m30 and H1 have had a little relief but remain bullish.
But while doing so, H2 and H4 have gotten close to overbought themselves.

Bull are still defending the 6300 level pretty well, their is some good buy wall, but less aggressive buying of the sell order and more selling into the buy orders is taking place now.

BTCUSD:Shorts are on the rise, it could lead to a possible short squeeze or a return of the bear.

The problem is, price is now playing in a pocket between 6300 and 6400, that give me a little less belief in the rally.
As per the rules of a double bottom the peak has to be confirmed as support, we are doing just that. But time is against the bull, without a new high within 4-6 hours 6300 could break and then we'd have to reevaluate the pattern.

노트

Some support TL
If there is more than a candle in the dotted line area that would be bad

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i think we are setting up for an imminent drop, need to create a panic sell to rise again, should be bought up quick at levels of previous chart and only leave a wick in the zone on H1.

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so far price are being pushed down more than sold into, look like the goal for some player is to increase their long a bit lower more than actively shorting

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so far, price is following the channel and trendline...
I like the m5 chart, starting to see more active buying
Don't really like the rejection on top of the channel and the long wick tho
RSI turning up on m30 is good
money flow as been rising on h4 this entire time, which is positive also
Next couple hours will matter a lot

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that thing wanna go up... having a deja-vu bear-trap it seems.

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And there !
watching for a double top scenario. But after this 30h build up, i don't think so. Looking at 7040 now.

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Well i didn't, went back right down into the channel..
Woke up to this, money flow is back to neutral but hasn't turned negative yet, this is good.
RSI on H2 is oversold which is a good reset
But H4 is overbought at the same time which isn't
I'm seeing indecision again in the market (including myself) and sellers are finally doing some actual selling.
I really don't want to see the next H2 and H4 candle closing under the dotted line.

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hoping to see something like this :

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so far so good...

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two options from here :

1) those small candle wick that pierce "my support" are a bear trap, afterall, those are the most volume we had in the past 48h, and they only happen because price have been pushed down by the same sell wall since morning, so it could make sens

노트

2) we have actually broken support, we would make an other touch down in the bear flag, near median of the BB, reset the H4 RSI and then go back up

(charts and idea are accidentally inverted, sorry)

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Well look like we are going with Number 1)
(but the second chart haha)

Bull are making their first move.
A close above 6350-6360 on this H4 candle would be a great confirmation.
But this attempt has to be successful after all this sideway (and failures, i have said "this it it" way too often lately).
So in a little bit, raising the stop loss could be a good idea. If 6300(or even 6310, 6320) fail again i don't think they will be able to conquer it back then.

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Green pin bar,
Reset h4 RSI,
Median line from BB catching up,
And close above 6350...

All i was asking for !
This better succeed !

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May be something like this...
Let's hope i've beat my bad tendency for undershooting/overshooting my targets/wave count.

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i think :

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target hit

Same chart as before, not much progress but we are now backed right against the rising chanel.
An other drop would break that

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we have a triangle happening here, if it doesn't breakout to the upside, then we might go through the chanel. And next target in orange also.
This is a good trade set-up because the breakout and confirmation should happen quickly since we so close to the apex of the triangle and so close to the trendline.