The Coin is down

2018년 1월 22일

Day Chart indicators (macd 90,30 and stoch) show that the downward movement has indeed not been completed yet as long we close under 12k, with the last move 9k-13k showing weakness now. Resistances on 10k seem accordingly weak and possibly could break. weak reaction at at the .38 retracement level. Last possible consolidation zone at the daily 200 moving average which will converge with the bottom correction trendline, the longterm
trendline and the old all time high at around 8000.

the only scenario that could avoid that now is that we consolidate over 12k in the next hours but it doesn't look like it, because strong countermovements in the coin often happen with sharp drop e.g. v-like formation that didn't occur so far, even though there is the possibility that we bounce from 9.2k again, beginning a longterm consolidation from there (?). The consolidiation could take weeks and even then later downward movement from 11k cannot be ruled out.

If the last consolidation attempts fails or the upwards movement is too weak e.g. doesnt even make it over 11k again after dropping to 8 or 9k it suggests a further sharp drop with unclear target, maybe 5000, in worst case even lower. especially bad news like stronger regulation efforts could increase the downward movement dramatically now, ending up in a crash (-70% in 2 weeks, we are already moving to -60% (!) btw). i suggest to be very very careful until there is a reasonable bottom forming on the day chart or better break the current downtrend upwards which would be around 12k now, or even better 13k. also look out for the volumes. until then rather expect falling prices and take care of fake breakouts, we're still short. but i wouldn't short either since it might be already too late for that and sharp or unclear movements in either direction at his point.