비트코인숏
BTCUSD – Completing a Bearish “Running Flat” into resistance
업데이트됨
From 26th June 2019 the BTC appear to have declined in a leading diagonal Wave (a) with low on 23rd October 2019.
Since then it could be forming a Running Flat (which are normally 5,3,5 or 3-3-5 structure) where wave “c” fails to retest the high of wave “a”.
This is a bearish structure as it suggests the the price lacks the momentum to make normal zigzag correction.
In addition, the wave “c” in this case appears to be a rising wedge with minor wave structure (3-3-3-3-3) having retraced just above 61.8% of wave “b” and has potential resistance from declining channel line and horizontal structure in proximity.
Once this is complete, it would decline in 5 waves. If Wave (a) = Wave (c) by percentage decline, then the downside target could be around 4,3000.
Invalidation of the above would be significant price rise above 9,250
Caution: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me the most, but could be completely wrong. Therefore, as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
For those who appreciate my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then, please be constructive and share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
Since then it could be forming a Running Flat (which are normally 5,3,5 or 3-3-5 structure) where wave “c” fails to retest the high of wave “a”.
This is a bearish structure as it suggests the the price lacks the momentum to make normal zigzag correction.
In addition, the wave “c” in this case appears to be a rising wedge with minor wave structure (3-3-3-3-3) having retraced just above 61.8% of wave “b” and has potential resistance from declining channel line and horizontal structure in proximity.
Once this is complete, it would decline in 5 waves. If Wave (a) = Wave (c) by percentage decline, then the downside target could be around 4,3000.
Invalidation of the above would be significant price rise above 9,250
Caution: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me the most, but could be completely wrong. Therefore, as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
For those who appreciate my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then, please be constructive and share for all to learn from.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
DanV
노트
UPDATE: 17th February 2020When the chart was published I was anticipating a running flat where wave “c” do not rise above the peak from where wave “a” commences.
However, now that we have new above the origin of wave “a” it become expanded flat but wave “c” commenced with 3-3-3-3-3 structure. Wave “iv” of “c” from 25th Jan low, appears to be a leading diagonal. Therefore another drive higher is needed to complete. This could be very violent thrust up, possibly into 11k area and form a spike reversal.
Equally, if the move up from 25th Jan low is not a leading diagonal then it is likely that we have cycle completion and top is formed.
In either case a confirmation would be clear break of the rising trendline. Should it break out strong above 11k then my interpretation of this being a flat correction would be invalidated.
Here is the chart
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