Bitcoin Double Bottom Bullf Flag or Bull Trap
업데이트됨
A few days ago i posted a message in my channels to explain why i wasn't around much lately and that it will be like that coming period, but trying to post some updates here and there. Today i will write an analysis but will keep it short though.
The past week the market has been indecisive through a triangle and now a possible double bottom. A few days ago i showed 3 versions:
3 version.
Bull flag, so break triangle down (so like a bear trap), than move up so eventually becoming a bull flag. This is actually the only bullish version I see.
Triangle, we break up, but slowing down around 12500/700. That could mean still like a bull trap and dump again. Volume will play a part. If breakout will be a clear short squeeze, so a jump up in seconds, that bull trap move becomes more likely.
We simply break the triangle down and continue to drop. Think below 11.000ish, bull flag version is out of play. 10.800ish is also still a support zone.
When looking at volume profile, feels more like distribution. Normally volume has to drop in a consolidation, which I am not seeing. So that is a bearish sign.
Just low time frame, not even going to try, because it’s getting manipulated extremely past days. So I would not even try to trade it. These are the moments where traders loose most of the money, so try to keep damages very limited. The easier moments will come again, they always come, just need to be patient
Even though it sounds strange, but as mentioned above, the only bullish i saw was a downwards break of the triangle. Since this is what happens, i have no real reason to think a bullish outcome coming weeks is still not possible. In general i am still bearish, have been and still am. I explained several times past weeks what my view was, that i still room for a correctional move up before we are headed down again for possibly the rest of the year. However, i kept mentioning that the past weeks (and coming) would be a very important period for the market. Because either i am right and we are continuing in a downtrend coming months, or i am wrong about that view and the past 2 months was simply a correctional move from the big rally we had this year. The strength of the push up form the 9K would be a first indication. I mentioned a few reasons lately in my channels to why i am still skeptical of this rally from the 9K's, despite the appearance of strength. Now this could be a misread from my side, but it is what i am thinking. The bigger picture view will change if we break 12.500/13.000.
Short term, we can see we are making a double bottom shape, almost similar to 2 weeks ago. But do not ignore the fact 2 weeks ago we were at a support zone (a low) while this time we are at a higher point. So even if it plays out, it could still become a failed one if we see a weak breakout of the W bottom neckline around 11.500. As i have tried to illustrate with the red and blue line.
For now, i think the 11.600 is a small resistance and think the 11.800ish is the first real test. Below 11.800 the bearish versions are still very likely to happen. If we get to see a touch of 12.000ish again, i think the bulls might be taking over again and a bullish version for the coming weeks will become much more likely. If this bull flag is real and we break the 12k, we really need to see a high volume break of the 12.000/500 zone and straight to 13K without any big correction. Knowing Bitcoin, even a standard pullback should not even happen. With straight to 13K, i don't mean within an hour, but more like withing 12/24 hours.
Support zones i see are around 11.2/1ish, the 10.800 and 10.100. However, think if the W bottom fails and we break 11K, don't see 10.800 being that significant anymore since it's so close. Unless we see a slow drop which makes us move inside that bullish wedge i have drawn on the left. See it like a possible backup plan for the bulls.
Previous analysis:
The past week the market has been indecisive through a triangle and now a possible double bottom. A few days ago i showed 3 versions:
3 version.
Bull flag, so break triangle down (so like a bear trap), than move up so eventually becoming a bull flag. This is actually the only bullish version I see.
Triangle, we break up, but slowing down around 12500/700. That could mean still like a bull trap and dump again. Volume will play a part. If breakout will be a clear short squeeze, so a jump up in seconds, that bull trap move becomes more likely.
We simply break the triangle down and continue to drop. Think below 11.000ish, bull flag version is out of play. 10.800ish is also still a support zone.
When looking at volume profile, feels more like distribution. Normally volume has to drop in a consolidation, which I am not seeing. So that is a bearish sign.
Just low time frame, not even going to try, because it’s getting manipulated extremely past days. So I would not even try to trade it. These are the moments where traders loose most of the money, so try to keep damages very limited. The easier moments will come again, they always come, just need to be patient
Even though it sounds strange, but as mentioned above, the only bullish i saw was a downwards break of the triangle. Since this is what happens, i have no real reason to think a bullish outcome coming weeks is still not possible. In general i am still bearish, have been and still am. I explained several times past weeks what my view was, that i still room for a correctional move up before we are headed down again for possibly the rest of the year. However, i kept mentioning that the past weeks (and coming) would be a very important period for the market. Because either i am right and we are continuing in a downtrend coming months, or i am wrong about that view and the past 2 months was simply a correctional move from the big rally we had this year. The strength of the push up form the 9K would be a first indication. I mentioned a few reasons lately in my channels to why i am still skeptical of this rally from the 9K's, despite the appearance of strength. Now this could be a misread from my side, but it is what i am thinking. The bigger picture view will change if we break 12.500/13.000.
Short term, we can see we are making a double bottom shape, almost similar to 2 weeks ago. But do not ignore the fact 2 weeks ago we were at a support zone (a low) while this time we are at a higher point. So even if it plays out, it could still become a failed one if we see a weak breakout of the W bottom neckline around 11.500. As i have tried to illustrate with the red and blue line.
For now, i think the 11.600 is a small resistance and think the 11.800ish is the first real test. Below 11.800 the bearish versions are still very likely to happen. If we get to see a touch of 12.000ish again, i think the bulls might be taking over again and a bullish version for the coming weeks will become much more likely. If this bull flag is real and we break the 12k, we really need to see a high volume break of the 12.000/500 zone and straight to 13K without any big correction. Knowing Bitcoin, even a standard pullback should not even happen. With straight to 13K, i don't mean within an hour, but more like withing 12/24 hours.
Support zones i see are around 11.2/1ish, the 10.800 and 10.100. However, think if the W bottom fails and we break 11K, don't see 10.800 being that significant anymore since it's so close. Unless we see a slow drop which makes us move inside that bullish wedge i have drawn on the left. See it like a possible backup plan for the bulls.
Previous analysis:
노트
A view options i want to show here, to keep things a little more objective. July 2018 rally:
And the ATH fractal i posted a few times. This one is also still possible, i personally don't give it a lot of value, but if we do see price jump up a lot coming days towards 12k again, we could assume its real.
노트
Here we can see that the bull have failed in all versions yesterday. But we are in a support area again and volume on the drops is not convincing enough to say that bulls have not chance at all. Key level nog for the bulls is the red zone around 10600. As long as that doesn't break, i don't see a need to be bullish mid-term. Current bounce up seems decent, but if it fails, maybe it could still form a bullish wedge with a target in that same red zone. So the bulls still need more than just this bounce or a bullish wedge.
11.600 would put bulls in favor again, but think above 11.200ish the bulls might already be taking over. So anything below 11.200ish, could still just be a bearish retest.
노트
New Bitcoin analysis:
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