Bitcoin waiting game

2020년 8월 28일

Hello dear readers, welcome to my analysis of Bitcoin.

Let me start from top down:
- The upcoming weekly close is really important for the bulls. A close above $11500 would signfy strength for the bulls while a close below would mean further downward movement.
- The Daily is not giving us much information at the moment. There is a huge amount of bearish momentum built up on daily, but even the sheer amount of bearish momentum didn't lead to a break of $11000. In my opinion this is bullish as long as the daily manages to hold these levels.
- 4H is showing a descending broadening wedge with bullish divergence formed on the recent test of $11100. This means that there is a good probability BTC will test $11700 over the weekend.

Bullish scenario
- BTC tests $11700 over the weekend and comes to retest $11400 - $11500 (ranged for the wicks) on Sunday/Monday morning. If the $11500 then manages to hold this would be our buy signal, or a more risky play would be to long $11400 with a stop loss below $11200. This scenario would also mean that weekly would stay bullish and the daily would give a bullish signal in terms of hidden bullish divergence so my target would be a mid term hold to 13K

Bearish scenario
- the bullish divergence fails and bitcoin goes down to test $11100 again with a higher probability of a breakdown. The next support would be at $10800 and on Monday BTC would then retest $11400 before continuing it's move down

In my opinion I think the bullish scenario is more likely than the bearish one, but that doesn't mean I will long right now. Right now we're basically waiting for a signal from Weekly close and maybe some kind of signal from daily.

Hope you liked my idea and if you have any constructive criticism please leave it down below.