BTC’s Bearish Look [Short-Term]

2018년 5월 6일

One of the biggest traits a good trader can have is to set emotions aside and learn how to make decisions objectively. This may seem pretty straightforward, but when you have skin in the game and subconscious desires playing in the back of your mind, it can get complicated. Remember, there’s nothing wrong with being a bear; you can profit regardless of the market position you’re taking. It is understandable though that there’s an inner desire for prices to go up and you riding the trend ($$$), yet this is what we have to set aside to trade like emotionless rocks, and by consequence, profitably. The chart above paints a textbook picture of what bearish price action looks like, but before I get into it, let me quickly share some more knowledge on the Ichimoku Cloud indicator that I have recently picked up.

“Ichimoku” in Japanese literally translates to “glance”. I have yet to read original texts from the indicator itself, but have learnt that this is an indicator that captures 80% of the trend. This means that by just turning it on and looking at it at a glance, one can quickly capture what the overall market picture looks like for a particular instrument. By looking at the Kumo (Cloud) position relative to price, Tenkan / Kijun action and where the Chikou Span (Lagging Span) stands, you gain a lot of relevant information that tells you where the market is and where it’s going. This I find pretty cool, and exceptionally useful when analyzing lots and lots of charts. Leave a comment if you have any further questions on the indicator!

Now onto the chart. Price action, imminent retests of support and oscillator divergences all tell us that we are looking bearish for BTC in the short-term. Remember that a retrace can actually be healthy, more so if the general trend is bullish; price can “run out of fuel” sometimes, so a decent amount of short/sell orders being filled is not bad overall. BTC on the daily timeframe currently shows:

Multiple Bearish “Price Magnet Zones” Ahead:

• Although the “Ichimoku Checklist” looks almost fully bullish, the bearish Kumo cloud is printing a flat line (Fibonacci retracement level), which is very attractive for price.
  
• Kumo Twist ahead: path of least resistance for price.
  
• Large support block that hasn’t been tested since its breakout.
  

Also, there is:

• Bearish RSI & OBV divergences: oscillators showing lower highs whilst price prints higher highs (see blue arrows). These divergences have an amazingly high strike rate, which further supports the future bearish action.
  

Don’t forget to like and follow!

Cheers,
Dani.

2018년 5월 9일

노트

Price hit first "magnet zone" after correcting over $500 in three days. Prediction extremely accurate so far, waiting to see if it hits the other two.

2018년 5월 27일

거래청산: 타겟 닿음

Target hit three target zones as predicted, the third one just off by one day; closing post after successful technical analysis.