BTC trend analysis

2022년 11월 21일

Taking a quick gander at the log chart and we can see that if we match the magnitude of the first major correction (-85% from peak to trough) we complete this downward move around psychological support at 10k.

Due to the parabolic impulsive post pandemic move in '20 from 10000 to 36000, I expect that we will consolidate and stay rangebound in this zone for the next couple of years. From an EW perspective we're either drawing a wave B here or the 1-2 of the larger wave III move up to 100k+.

Regardless 10-11k seems like a good spot to start accumulating longs for a medium term length trade.

2022년 12월 21일

노트

At about 77 bars prior to the prior 2 halvings, some type of capitulation event happened... so the question is, has that happened with the recent FTX problems, or is this capitulation still to come?

If you're a believer in BTC as a storer of value, then this is a great place to start a position.