How Long Can Bitcoin Continue to Rally? Trend Analysis and Ideas

2019년 6월 1일

Bitcoin Trend Analysis and Ideas
Trend
Primary (Scope of the last 4 or so months)

• Strong upwards trend after bitcoin bear market
  
• Has been in pretty strong upwards trend since beginning of 2019 (especially February)
  
• Overcame the tight range from end of 2018
  
• Been moving upwards at roughly 52 degrees
  
• New higher highs and higher lows (but no real major pull back as of yet)
  

Secondary (Trend of around the last 30 days)

• Strong upwards trend with volatile pullbacks
  
• Still constantly creating new higher lows (see trendline)
  
• New higher highs but had trouble at the most recent high
  

Entry Trend

• Slight downward trend after hitting most recent local high
  
• Reached new entry trend lower low of 8200
  
• Reached new entry trend lower high of 8587 and appears to be selling off
  
• Indecision around 8730 range
  
• 8940 current high and sold off aggressively from here
  

Notes
Daily

• Currently trading near horizontal resistance around 8500 level
  
• Would ideally like to see a pullback to 6700 area before moving higher
  
• Major sell off occurred on May 16th but was only closed about half of the move
  
• Watch triangle trendline
  

4hr

• Recent bullish ascending triangle
  
• Strong support around 8125 level
  
• Maybe too aggressive of a move? Would like to see more of a pullback here too
  

1hr

• Recently slowly recovered more than half of the prior days aggressive sell off
  
• Looks like it is peaking and may be coming down a little from pullback?
  
• Looking for entry around 8380 range assuming trendline holds (watch trendline close)
  

Potential Trading Ideas
Bitcoin has made a massive move to the upside arguably pulling it out of the bear market. This recent rise may be explained by investors attempting to hedge themselves after losing faith in a resolution of
the ongoing US trade war.

• Due to the rapid recent rise I personally would like to see a pullback back to the low 6000s before moving higher over the next month or two
  
• However on the mid to short term I am looking primarily to buy Bitcoin on pull backs to the support trendline from the beginning of may (assuming no trendline breaks)
  
• Short term there appears to be a short sell scalp down to around the $8380 level