BTCUSD: Conflciting Signals? Bigger Picture Potential Bullish.

2018년 6월 18일

BTCUSD update: Symmetrical triangle has appeared after a series of inside bars. This continuation pattern implies lower prices, but the bigger picture location makes for a very conflicted technical situation.

The break of this triangle points increases the possibility of a retest of the 5956 reversal zone boundary. Or just above that at the 6005 historical support. The conflict comes in when you zoom out and observe the price location.

The 6005 to 6565 levels are both significant supports where buyers have appeared previously. 8171 to 4983 is the largest magnitude .618 support zone that is relative to the entire bullish structure originating from the 150 lows. And the failed low configuration relative to the April lows.

These broad considerations point to a greater probability of a large recovery move. As I wrote in my S.C. article on ETH earlier, these markets are in position to rally, all they need is a spark.

The "spark" or catalyst is something a chart will not help you see. Usually they come out of no where and take the market by surprise. Kind of like the way Draghi hammered the Euro 300 pips the other day.

What you must decide is what time frame you are betting on. The short term is still showing signs of bearish momentum with the trend line and 7790 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure) still intact.

At S.C., we are not day trading. Swing and position trades contain the scope of our evaluation, expectations and trade decisions. This means we are still betting on the bigger picture. We are betting that the attractiveness of the broader location outweighs the small time frame momentum.

If price pushes lower, we take more pain and get stopped out and will simply look for an opportunity to get back in. Otherwise we are positioned to benefit nicely if the a bullish spark takes this market by surprise.

In summary, we don't bet on opinions, we bet on probabilities. Any updates will appear on S.C., follow along for a better idea of the decision making process we use, especially in situations like this.