Bitcoin Needs More Shorts To Squeeze Please.

2020년 2월 16일

#Bitcoin peaks at 10,400 before confirming a bearish outside candle formation. Is this the beginning of the next bear market? Maybe for 1 hour chart enthusiasts, but broader price structure CLEARLY hints toward further strength. In this video, I am sharing the ideas and elements that we evaluate in order to gain a sense of perspective that is RELATIVE to the intent of the market. This is part of the decision making process that governs the performance of our LONG only swing trade strategy. The text portion provides a summary of the key points of the video.

1. 9564 to 10,168 is a notable resistance zone where there is a greater probability of a bearish reversal (particularly above the 10,300 peak established in November). For our LONG only swing trade strategy, this provides an inflection point to reduce risk (partial profits) or exiting a trade completely. 3 out of 4 of our previous swing trades reached all 3 profit targets. We sent out an exit signal on our most recent alternate trade to lock in the profit which had not reached target 3 (we shared this idea at 9500). Why exit? The next relevant support is the 8900 area and there is no reason to let this profit erode any further at this point.

2. Just because there is a sell signal, does not mean we are bearish by any means. The broad reversal pattern (inverted head and shoulders) off of the 7275 support zone has established a bullish impulse structure (from 6400 area to 10,400). UNTIL this structure is compromised, we will be open to taking aggressive long signals while interpreting sell signals lightly. 8945 is the support that price needs to maintain in order to maintain bullish momentum.

3. We are waiting for the next higher low and price action reversal to go long. Those who short this are the ones who provide the buying pressure when they are margined out of their positions. This short covering effect is likely to lead price through the 10,400 high and into the next resistance zone in the mid 11Ks. Price action will need to establish a bullish reversal somewhere between the current price and 8900, otherwise we take no action. Can price retrace to the 7K area? Sure, but the probability is low until order flow can provide evidence that such selling pressure exists. Long term opinions mean very little when operating short term strategies. Order flow determines reality, read order flow, not opinions.

Whenever a sell signal appears, the bears pile in, typically with unrealistic profit targets RELATIVE to their time frames and this environment. Difference in opinion is what makes a market because in order to win, someone has to lose. The mark of inexperience is focusing on being "right" in an environment that is highly random. You can be wrong and win, and you can be right and still lose. Sound familiar? Just look at all of the charts posted in the comment section, all trying to prove who's right. Long term performance is a product of two things: ADJUSTING to variable probabilities AND making more when you win, relative to when you lose. Our track records serve as realistic examples of a philosophy that is focused on risk management, not win rate.