BTCUSD ... if history is any guide

2018년 4월 13일

This is my very long-term idea of BTC, suggesting that 2018 will be a bearish fractal of 2014.

BTC should become oversold on the weekly. According to the fractal, this should happen around January 2019, with price around 3k.
Remember, bull traps are a fundamental component of a bear cycle, so this time it should be no different. The best trap should be when we break the steep pink downtrend channel, only to realise what lies above - the long red downtrend channel. :)

I will not trade BTC with more than 5% of my portfolio value, until I see my targets reached: ~3k, in 2019. If this scenario gets invalidated (by a major break and close outside of the red downtrend channel), throw this idea into the garbage bin.

2018년 4월 21일

노트

Price touched the upper side of the falling wedge. We should see some accelerating selling in the following days, for the 2014 wedge to replicate to 2018.