After hitting yet another all time high, BTC is once again getting a bit wobbly. Price has come down to test 21 day EMA again, which has been the primary support throughout the bull run. There have been a few breaches for a short time, but BTC has recovered pretty quickly to resume the upward trajectory. This time around, Bollinger bands are narrowing and flattening along side ADX is picking up and getting over 20 since crossing below this level in late March. MACD has a negative cross as price is holding on to 21 daily EMA. So, a few things need to be watched very closely for the next few days:
1. As long as DMI plus is over 20, this short term consolidation has a chance to break to the upside again. If ADX stays over 20, the continuation move will pick up steam.
2. If price breaks below 21 daily EMA, there are major support just underneath. Both 50 EMA and SMA and the bottom Bollinger creeping into major VPVR demand zone between 56-57k. If price gets a bounce there, the probability of a huge runup towards another all time high will increase.
3. Keeping an eye on the daily RSI. If price keeps a lower high posture from April 7th low, while RSI dips down below the last low, any bounce will form a bullish divergence. That will also push things upward and onward.
4. On the downside possibility, looking at the wedge formation. For BTC, wedges seldom play out, but at the top of the market, it is not something to be ignored. If this pattern plays out, along with:
- a break of 20 daily EMA and
- DMI Plus dipping below 20 level and
- a daily close below April 7th low
the target will be all the way down to low 40ks. Could be the beginning of the end for this bull market.
5. BTC price broke out of the resistance box only to come back inside. It is never a good sign to get a failed breakout at the all time high. Volume also keeps dropping. So, the next moves will need to be monitored very carefully.
For now, structure is more important than any patterns or indicators. If structure starts to break, I will be planning on taking some positions off and wait for the next move. Whichever way the move happens, should happen fairly soon, within the next week, or worst case before the month end. Good luck out there!
1. As long as DMI plus is over 20, this short term consolidation has a chance to break to the upside again. If ADX stays over 20, the continuation move will pick up steam.
2. If price breaks below 21 daily EMA, there are major support just underneath. Both 50 EMA and SMA and the bottom Bollinger creeping into major VPVR demand zone between 56-57k. If price gets a bounce there, the probability of a huge runup towards another all time high will increase.
3. Keeping an eye on the daily RSI. If price keeps a lower high posture from April 7th low, while RSI dips down below the last low, any bounce will form a bullish divergence. That will also push things upward and onward.
4. On the downside possibility, looking at the wedge formation. For BTC, wedges seldom play out, but at the top of the market, it is not something to be ignored. If this pattern plays out, along with:
- a break of 20 daily EMA and
- DMI Plus dipping below 20 level and
- a daily close below April 7th low
the target will be all the way down to low 40ks. Could be the beginning of the end for this bull market.
5. BTC price broke out of the resistance box only to come back inside. It is never a good sign to get a failed breakout at the all time high. Volume also keeps dropping. So, the next moves will need to be monitored very carefully.
For now, structure is more important than any patterns or indicators. If structure starts to break, I will be planning on taking some positions off and wait for the next move. Whichever way the move happens, should happen fairly soon, within the next week, or worst case before the month end. Good luck out there!
코멘트:
Shenanigans!!! price took a massive dive and bounced from the first green demand zone. Whiplash all around. Stay frosty out there!!!!
