BTCUSD: Decision time approaching

업데이트됨

BTCUSD is nearing the extremely important 0.618 and 0.768 Fibonacci resistance levels at 51k and 57k respectively.

Here it will be decided if this rally the past 4 weeks was just a bounce, and we continue with a drop to 20k-ish, or
if this is really a sustained rally, and we continue towards new ATHs by the end of the year.

In the first scenario, shown with the blue bars, BTC would get rejected either at 51k or 57k and then drop to 20k to shake out lots of weak hands, and then do the final top at 250k-ish by the end of 2022.

This would be in line with the lengthening cycle theory, which states that BTC cycles are getting longer each time.

However, should BTC break through both Fibo levels, we very likely will see the final ATH by the end of 2021. However, it will then be not as high as it would be in late 2022. I think 150k instead of 250k, because
of the rising resitance channel, that is not as high yet by late 2021, compared to late 2022. The weekly Stoch RSI and the pattern look both very similar to last year October, this indicates that the yellow scenario
could be really on the table. But it's really hard to say the chances. I'd go with 50/50.

So then friends: Decision time is approaching. The next weeks will be crucial ! 51k to 57k will be the battle zone where it will be decided if BTC makes us first sad then happy, or just directly happy without the sad part XD

Good luck to everyone!

노트

We are not out of the woods yet:

The weekly candle must close above the red line, and ideally above the 0.702 fibonacci level at 54k.

That would be a very bullish sign. Until then, I still remain cautious.