2024-12-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Clear channel upwards and we will likely hit 110k over the next days. The channel is wide enough to trade in both directions. Once market breaks below the closes bull trend line and the 4h 20ema, a short is the much bitter trade from a r:r perspective.
current market cycle: Still a bull trend as long as above 94000.
key levels: 94000 - 110.000
bull case: Bulls got another strong move up that began last Tuesday. It’s pointing to my measured move target 110k and I highly doubt bulls can get it much above that. But I also have a tendency to underestimate these bubbles. We can clearly see two legs up already and a third could get us there.
Invalidation is below 94000.
bear case: Bears see the broad bull channel and selling new highs was profitable over the past 4 weeks. They see the next bull wedge which can break down over the next 2-3 days and they hope for another deep pullback to 98k or lower.
Invalidation is above 110.000.
short term: Bulls are in control but I have no interest in buying this. Once the bull wedge breaks down and we trade below the 4h 20ema, I will think about shorts for 98k-100k.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 over the weekend.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Shorting above 101k continues to be profitable.
comment: Clear channel upwards and we will likely hit 110k over the next days. The channel is wide enough to trade in both directions. Once market breaks below the closes bull trend line and the 4h 20ema, a short is the much bitter trade from a r:r perspective.
current market cycle: Still a bull trend as long as above 94000.
key levels: 94000 - 110.000
bull case: Bulls got another strong move up that began last Tuesday. It’s pointing to my measured move target 110k and I highly doubt bulls can get it much above that. But I also have a tendency to underestimate these bubbles. We can clearly see two legs up already and a third could get us there.
Invalidation is below 94000.
bear case: Bears see the broad bull channel and selling new highs was profitable over the past 4 weeks. They see the next bull wedge which can break down over the next 2-3 days and they hope for another deep pullback to 98k or lower.
Invalidation is above 110.000.
short term: Bulls are in control but I have no interest in buying this. Once the bull wedge breaks down and we trade below the 4h 20ema, I will think about shorts for 98k-100k.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 over the weekend.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Shorting above 101k continues to be profitable.
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