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BTC needs to break above long-term resistance line @ 10090 USD..

업데이트됨

Zoomed out view of the long-term resistance line.

Main Chart
BTC needs to break above long-term resistance line @ 10090 USD and find support, before long-term bull market confirmation towards next parabolic run(?).

Cyber Ensemble already signaled a buy [B] earlier. However TD is already past a 9, so a sell signal may appear at any moment for a minor/negligible(?) retracement.

Price presently supported above red 21 EMA.
Thin orange 200 VWMA strongly above thick orange SMA, providing volume confirmation of bullish bias of the market.
Remaining short term bullish so long as price stays above green 50 SMA.

White DVI line broke out above (faint blue) 95%CI band.
DVI-RSI (in the AnalysisPak) below now broken out above 95%CI band.

PRISM Oscillators Set:
The pRSI main oscillator remains above its 30 VWMA == Bullish.
Acceleration coming down though, which will pull momentum down in the short term. Perhaps will consolidate sideways for a day or two, supported by green Ichicloud, coming down to retest 21 EMA.
Stochs (not shown -- manually activated in the settings) is nearing oversold.

Previous Analysis leading up to present price pump:

(20Jul20)

BTC:USD - Volume Confirmation analysis (6hrly Chart analysis)

(11Jul20)

Bullish perspective of BTCUSD (Daily Chart)

(30Jun20)

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Daily TD on a 9 now. Expecting a retrace incoming to retest the levels discussed above.

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However it has successfully broken above the resistance line strongly.
Expecting it to retrace only a little to retest the ca. 10090 USD level.

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BTC retested Ichicloud and bounced -- demonstrating significant strength.
Expecting another significant pump to possibly 15kUSD after a short consolidation.

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There's a big CME gap down to 9645 USD though.
The pump is too stupid-exuberant though, instead of a healthier sensible pump.
Momentum coming down on PRISM oscillators with the snap-oscillator descending steeply.
There's a chance that BTC will wick down to 9.6kUSD which will be ideal (if BTC breaks below red hourly 21 EMA, and green 50 SMA); however, will have to treat things level by level.
LONGS/SHORTS ratio presently neutral @ 1.02 on bybt.

(Hourly)

(Daily)
STOCH(RSI) and STOCH(pRSI) are both nearing overbought on the daily.
Daily TD-seq on a 7, doji on the previous candle right after the exuberant pump.
Some sideways movement (for at least 2 days) before a retrace -- at least down to the ca. 10500USD VPVR level or even the 9628USD VPVR level (not shown, see main OP chart)?

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BTC (hourly) looking too bullish for a significant dump though?
Re-accumulation like behavior emerging..

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Higher-high confirmed.
Next stop @ ~14k USD/BTC?
Short-Mid term retrace first possible.
Note: CME gap at 9650 USD.

Short-term Bearish view.
Bearish in the short term now after the pump? Long-term bullish structure is still intact even if it dumps as low as 7.5k USD. More likely (IMO) to revisit 9650 USD which will be a healthy retracement to clean out the weak hands before continuation upwards.

Setting stop-loss below 10429 USD just in case.

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Adjusted stop loss to below red 21 EMA.

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(ATR adjusted)

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Perhaps simply some side-ways consolidation (re-accumulation), with BTC.D dip with funds distributed back into alts again first, before BTC/ETH continues higher.

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Bullish scenario show in the latest chart shared above playing out?

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Potential bear flag too.. setting conservative break-out buy-ins; and stop-loss as well for the remaining position, and will wait and see how the market plays out for now.

Note: Still mostly HODLing since currently confirmed in a bull market (see related idea linked below); and only trading with a negligible portion of my total BTC portfolio. :)

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And that said:
The massive wick (rapid and strong recovery right after dumping down) shows significant strength in the market and the support at ca. 10500 USD.

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Looking less bearish short-term now: