Attempts at a new high currently hold a false breakout pattern.

In stop hunting we usually see prices trading a little bit past the level they "Should". Looking very convincing at the time but turning into wicks and later being clear expressions of false breakout patterns.

One of the most well known of the false breakout patterns is the head and shoulders.
Where people see the pattern of higher highs and higher lows, buy the dip and then there's a flood exit upon the next break as everyone gets the memo at the same time that was a really bad idea.

BTC is around the level there's the best chance for a low (62000 area) but if this breaks I think we're going to see a rug pull capitulation/waterfall style event.

I've explained this risk on a conceptual basis various times in my recent posts during the BTC rally. We're now at the point where the actionable signals are close to firing.

As I've said various times, if the bull trap hypothesis is correct, BTC should have an initial haircut of 40- 50% in the first break swing.

We've now very close to that break happening.

Have been trailing stops and locking in profits on my BTC exposed stock puts. I always like to be more careful when we're at supports.

But if supports fail here, bombs away.