Crypto Winter has begun

2022년 4월 22일

If this is indeed a major bear market, I think we can speculate about the returns for a potential fifth cycle.

Cycle 2 was ~600x ($2 bottom / $1,200 top)
Cycle 3 was ~100x ($200 bottom, $20,000 top)
Cycle 4 would be ~20x ($3,000 bottom, $60,000 top)

The returns seem to be diminished by a factor of 5-6, as the cycles move on.

So if it turns out that that:
a) We capitulate to the $20,000 region this year
b) This becomes the new market cycle bottom

Cycle 5 diminishing by the same factor would implicate ~4x returns, and the next major top could be around $80,000.

Basically, volatility reducing and Bitcoin becoming just another traditional asset.