Long BTC at Selling Climax

2022년 5월 11일

Previously, I’ve demonstrated stepping-stone descending horizontal Wyckoff re-distribution trading ranges for BTC. Interestingly, the last 3 transitions from Wyckoff re-distribution Phase E to Phase A were similar. In all 3 cases, we observed a climatic level of volume. In all 3 cases, we observed sell bars with a large spread. The percent change in price for these Phase E/Phase A transitions were -26.84%, -21.28%, and -24.98% in Dec 2021, Jan 2022, and May 2022, respectively. In all 3 cases, we observed a selling climax (SC), which serves the purpose of stopping the down trend, followed by an automatic rally (ARa). I expect that we will observe an ARa to the first area of important resistance, which is the open of the May 9 sell bar ($33,945).

I have opened a long position at $30,476 and I have a take profit target of $33,945, which is an 11.38% profit.

Significant bars, which help define important areas of support and resistance, are given by the blue shading. The blue arrows point to volume spikes.

Wyckoff abbreviations: automatic rally (ARa), selling climax (SC), secondary test (ST), upthrust (UT), failed upthrust (FUT), last point of supply (LPSY), shakeout (SO), sign of weakness (SOW), Phase A (Ph A), Phase B (Ph B), Phase C (Ph C), Phase D (Ph D), Phase E (Ph E).

This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.

2022년 5월 11일

노트

In this chart, I’ve superimposed a Fixed Range Volume Profile Indicator on the Bad Ass Bollinger Bands (BA BBs) to identify a second take profit target ($36,422). Also shown is the point of control, which is $38,545 at the moment. The Phoenix Ascending (PA) indicator is given in the bottom panel. Projected values for the PA indicator elements are given by the dotted lines.

2022년 5월 11일

거래청산: 스탑 닿음

This trade is closed. My SL was hit.

I was incorrect about the location of the SC. The market has spoken.