Bitcoin Levels and Trading Plan for July 2024

7월 1일

This article will lay out the key levels that should come into play in the price action of BTCUSD starting today on July 1st and may carry on through the month. This analysis will rely on Ichimoku, 50% Retracements, and Volume Profile.


The primary driver of my analysis on Bitcoin price action is the Daily Ichimoku trend. I published a video last week on how consistently effective this analysis has been over the entire history of Bitcoin that I highly recommend watching to understand in detail. The basics are:

1. Price is below the cloud
   
2. Lagging span is below the cloud
   
3. These two together = confirmed bearish
   

This is the inverse of the post-ETF hype phase bullish trend that took Bitcoin to a new All Time High. An All Time High that unfortunately for HODLers failed to push higher and confirm the bullish momentum to carry forward past the fabled "6 figures".


The key levels brought to us by Volume Profile in the longer term are:
Resistance:

• 63000: Near term being tested this morning
  
• 67780: The line in the sand to return to bullish
  

Support:

• 62000: Near term support today
  
• 56940: Low of the consolidation range
  
• 51760: Next stopping point of the current bear trend
  
• 42630: Return to the ETF launch era, my ideal target for my long term short
  

The two key levels are 67780 above and 42630 below.


If price can get back up and break 67780 then the Ichimoku rules will be true for the bullish trend to resume and possibly continue either for another consolidation high or even new All Time High.


If Ichimoku rules are correct and last week was the start of a bearish trend then price would very likely return to the ETF launch levels. This is a strong support and also a thematic one for what happens in assets that have a honeymoon phase before returning back to reality.


Before that final Support the 50k level will be interesting as it does contain a key Volume Profile level AND will invoke the Weekly Ichimoku cloud.

Trade wisely!