Bitcoin Might Have Reached a Long-Term Bottom

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The support line outlined in the chart above is drawn in the logarithmic scale and has been in place since BTC’s inception. In addition, the 200-week moving average is outlined in black.

The price has validated both the support line and the MA numerous times, the prior three being on:

-August 2015
-December 2018
-January 2019

The current weekly candlestick is below this support line and has touched the MA. However, there are four more days until the weekly candlestick closes, so we cannot yet state that the price has broken down below this line. For example, on August 2015, the price decreased way below this level only to bounce afterward and close the week slightly above the MA.

The weekly RSI can be helpful in determining where the current price level is in regards to previous cycles. It has been oversold on only two occasions, January 2015 and December 2018.

The current decrease that touched the support line has occurred 462 days after the RSI bottom. Interestingly, the price also touched the support line 462 days after the January 2015 bottom and created a very long lower wick.

As for the vertical lines, they represent the halvening dates. The proximity to halvening is another similarity between these two cycles and suggests that this is probably a bottom.

Therefore, the most probable move from here is a gradual price increase that would cause a weekly close above $6,000 and the ascending support line. The rate of increase would be expected to increase after halvening.