Bitcoin: Too Early To Invest?

2022년 11월 27일

No catalyst, no momentum, especially in the midst of holiday mode. Typically this time of year carries a general sense of optimism but is no where near as dramatic as a year ago and there is plenty of good reason for that. If you are confused by this, you are mostly likely viewing the market from the typical egocentric novice retail trader point of view. Stop trying to "think" or forecast where price will go. Instead embrace the fact that markets are mostly random, and are affected by many variables that are impossible to know (unless you are an insider). Focus two things: the context of the economic environment along with the intent presented by the general price structure.

Between context and price structure it is possible to gain a sense of what is reasonable in terms of momentum and RISK. The context has NOT changed for MONTHS. We have a hawkish FED, rates have yet to prove they are turning in a way that is more favorable to the markets. All while the broader price structure of Bitcoin continues to be BEARISH, especially in light of the new lower low recently established as a result of the unexpected FTX situation.

Note the levels on my chart. The 16,500 AREA is a mid point between the 18,500 range resistance and the 15,500 support. This is a highly random location where price can go either way equally over the short term. A recent sell signal from 16,300 was not able to follow through and unless a significant catalyst comes along, short squeezes are very possible. Maybe NFP will stimulate a reaction?

Either way, my swing trade plan is simple: WAIT for the 18,500 area resistance to be tested, followed by a setup. IF that opportunity presents itself, I am open to calling another short swing trade idea. Otherwise there is NOTHING to do here on this time frame. The risk is high either way.

As far as investing, while I am a proponent of taking small bites and accumulating inventory carefully over time, I think it is best to be very careful here. There is a lot of regulatory activity on the horizon and there is no way to know how it will affect Bitcoin. The alt coins are especially vulnerable to this which means accumulation of these should be even more conservative.

Since the break of 40K, I have not called one long swing trade, and I have been warning followers to take small bites because of the high RISK on the long side. The current situation still warns of high risk and levels as extreme as 14K, 10K or even 5K should be ACCOUNTED FOR. This is NOT a forecast, instead it is an important consideration in light of the economic context and price structure. Best advice I can offer: LISTEN TO PRICE NOT PEOPLE.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.